Africa and Ghana’s much-touted return to economic growth may be real, but it is fragile and still under threat; this is the admission of the Governor of the Bank of Ghana, Dr. Johnson Asiama.
The Governor made this sobering revelation on Monday when he addressed the Pan-African Central Bank Governors’ Conference in Accra.
The two-day meeting, themed “Central Bank Governance: Leadership, Credibility, and Resilience in African Central Banking,” forms part of the long-standing Bank of Ghana–Bank of England Technical Cooperation Programme, supported by the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO).
Fragile Stability Beneath the Growth Story
Addressing his colleague Governors and deputy governors, Dr. Asiama acknowledged that economic growth is returning across Africa, projecting a regional average of 4.1% in 2025. This, he says, is higher than the global average.
He further noted that inflation, which peaked at over 21% in 2023, has begun to ease. However, beneath these encouraging numbers lies a worrying reality.
For him, the numbers are an indication that indeed Africa’s economy is on the path of recovery after the turbulence, yet the risks are glaring.
“Economic growth is returning across many of our countries. It is projected at 4.1 percent in 2025, which would be above the global average. And inflation across sub-Saharan Africa, which averaged over 21 percent in 2023, is also easing. But beneath this progress, colleagues, lies our fragility,” he acknowledged.
He noted that several countries, including Ghana, are only beginning to emerge from years of economic strain, and it would take sustained discipline and policy consistency to rebuild resilience.
The threats, he says, emanate from high borrowing costs and untested fiscal and monetary policies, which they cannot confirm that they could withstand shocks.
“We still have to contend with high borrowing costs, thin buffers, and fiscal strains. Strains that can undo years of reform within months. In other words, our stability is real, but it is still young. It is still being tested,” he noted.
Echoes of S&P’s Warning
Dr. Asiama’s remarks closely mirror recent observations from S&P Global Ratings, which, in its latest review, upgraded Ghana’s sovereign rating but cautioned that the country’s recovery “remains exposed to commodity price fluctuations and external shocks.”
S&P noted that while Ghana’s economic outlook has brightened with improving reserves and easing inflation, the resilience of the recovery remains uncertain, particularly as fiscal reforms and expenditure controls are yet to be fully tested.
The Governor’s statement, therefore, serves as both an acknowledgment and a reminder: the recovery exists, but its foundation is still delicate.
Lessons in Leadership and Discipline
At the conference, Dr. Asiama emphasized the critical role of credible and resilient central banks in navigating Africa’s uncertain economic path. He urged stronger coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities to protect macroeconomic gains.
The Governor’s call resonated with the conference’s focus on leadership and accountability, qualities that have often determined whether central banks act as stabilizers or amplifiers in times of crisis.
A Call to Guard the Gains
As Africa’s economies begin to show signs of renewal after years of shocks, from the pandemic to global supply disruptions and domestic debt crises, Dr. Asiama’s remarks suggest that it is one thing to recover from shocks, and it is another to build resilience.
For Ghana, whose cedi has recently stabilized and whose inflation is forecast to fall below 10% in 2026, the challenge now is to turn fragile progress into lasting strength.
