Ghana can potentially outperform the 2028 IMF target for debt management, should the current pace of fiscal prudence and discipline be maintained.
This is the optimism of an economist and lecturer at the Academic City University, Dr. Paul Appiah-Konadu. He believes that Ghana could be heading for one of its strongest fiscal turnarounds in decades if the current discipline in managing the public purse is sustained.
Dr. Appiah Konadu says the country has a real chance of cutting its public debt to about 20% of GDP by the end of the current administration’s term in 2028.
This position of the economist is coming amid a 55% Debt-to-GDP target by 2028 under the current IMF bailout programme. This means the current government, he believes, can outpace this target by a whopping 35 percentage points by 2028.
Speaking in an interview with The High Street Journal on the country’s economic outlook as part of the discussions on the 2026 Budget, Dr. Appiah-Konadu said the government’s recent approach to tightening expenditure, slowing down borrowing, and sticking to the rules of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme is beginning to show results.
For him, the real test will come when the IMF programme ends in 2026, a period when governments in the past have often relaxed the very reforms that helped stabilize the economy.
But he insists the signs look different this time. He noted that Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson has exhibited a significant level of responsibility and restraint, which has boosted confidence in the government’s ability to stay the course even after the IMF is no longer watching closely.
According to him, if the discipline seen in the last few years continues, Ghana could go beyond simply meeting the IMF’s targets for debt sustainability and actually outperform them.
“Hopefully, we will be able to ensure that fiscal discipline beyond the IMF. I have so much trust in this Minister of Finance and so far in this government to be responsible when the IMF leaves town beyond 2026,” he expressed his optimism.
He added, “and if we carry on at the pace at which we are moving, I think by the time the turn of this government ends in 2028, we’ll be able to bring public debt levels to below maybe 20% of GDP. It is possible if we continue moving at this pace and keep reducing the rate of borrowing; it is possible we can get there.”
One of the anchors of the IMF programme is reducing Ghana’s debt from unsustainable levels, which crossed 90% of GDP during the 2022 crisis, to 55% of GDP by 2028. Many economists and analysts have described this target as ambitious yet necessary to restore stability, rebuild confidence, and reduce the burden of interest payments on the budget.
But Dr. Appiah-Konadu is taking a stance of conditional optimism. He believes Ghana’s current momentum puts it on a path that could surpass the IMF’s expectations
Such an outcome would be unprecedented in Ghana’s recent history. A debt-to-GDP level near 20% would place the country among the lowest-debt economies in the world and free up huge fiscal space for development spending.
It would also ease pressure on the cedi, reduce inflationary risks, and help the private sector access credit at more manageable interest rates.
But can the anchor hold? Only posterity can tell.
