The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) kept its global oil demand growth forecasts unchanged for 2026 while warning that geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions in the Middle East continue to tighten physical crude markets and drive volatility in energy prices.
In its May Monthly Oil Market Report , OPEC said global oil demand is expected to increase by 1.2 million barrels a day in 2026, with growth accelerating to 1.5 million barrels a day in 2027. The group left its global economic growth forecasts unchanged at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027.
The producer group said resilient growth in Asia, strong investment linked to artificial intelligence and expanding global trade continue to support oil consumption despite inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainty.
Oil prices remained elevated in April as refiners in Europe and Asia competed for prompt crude cargoes amid disruptions to Middle East supply flows, according to the report. The OPEC Reference Basket fell $7.57 a barrel month-on-month to average $108.79 a barrel, while Brent crude averaged $102.46 a barrel.
OPEC said physical oil markets appeared tighter than futures markets reflected, with Brent and West Texas Intermediate forward curves moving deeper into backwardation, a structure typically associated with near-term supply shortages.
The report highlighted continued disruptions to shipping and crude trade routes. Very Large Crude Carrier freight rates on the West Africa-to-East route remained 129% higher than a year earlier even after easing from March peaks.
US crude exports reached a record 5.3 million barrels a day in April, driven by stronger shipments to Japan and South Korea as buyers sought alternatives to Middle Eastern barrels.
At the same time, OPEC signaled slower supply growth outside the producer alliance. Non-Declaration of Cooperation countries are forecast to expand liquids production by about 600,000 barrels a day in both 2026 and 2027, with Brazil, Canada, Argentina and Qatar leading gains.
The group said upstream investment among non-OPEC+ producers is weakening. Capital spending for oil exploration and production in non-DoC countries fell by about $8 billion in 2025 to $281 billion and is projected to decline another 5% in 2026.
In the US, upstream liquids investment is estimated to have dropped 7% in 2025 and is expected to decline a further 12% this year as shale producers focus on capital discipline despite elevated prices.
OPEC also revised down its estimate for demand for crude from countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation to 42.7 million barrels a day in 2026, though that would still be about 400,000 barrels a day higher than in 2025.
