Ghana’s operating environment is entering a high-risk phase in 2026, with environmental degradation, security pressures, and an impending exit from an International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme posing the most immediate threats to businesses, according to a new report by Sompa & Partners.
The National Risk Dimension Report for the first quarter ranks environmental and climate risks as “extreme,” assigning the highest score of 100 out of 125, driven largely by illegal mining, or galamsey, which the report describes as the country’s top security threat.
The findings come as Ghana posts improving macroeconomic indicators, including inflation at a 13-year low and foreign reserves above $13 billion. However, the report cautions that the recovery remains fragile and heavily dependent on commodity prices rather than structural reforms.
“Ghana enters 2026 at a macroeconomic inflection point,” the report said, adding that recent gains risk being undermined by structural vulnerabilities across multiple sectors.
A key concern is the scheduled exit from the IMF programme in August 2026, which the report identifies as a critical risk event. The withdrawal of external fiscal oversight could expose the economy to policy slippage, currency volatility and renewed inflationary pressures.
Economic and financial risks were rated “severe,” with a score of 60, reflecting concerns over rising public debt in the cocoa sector, banking sector fragility and exposure to global shocks such as Middle East tensions affecting oil prices.
Security and operational risks were also classified as severe, with ongoing tensions in Bawku, the spread of organised crime linked to illegal mining and potential spillover from Sahel insurgencies cited as major threats to business continuity.
The report highlights unemployment as the country’s top sociocultural risk, noting that hundreds of thousands of applicants competing for a limited number of public sector jobs signal deep labour market stress and potential social instability.
Political and governance risks were rated “high,” with concerns including fiscal uncertainty after the IMF exit, audit irregularities and shifting geopolitical alignments affecting trade and investment flows.
Despite these challenges, legal and regulatory risks were assessed as moderate, though the report warned that new digital asset regulations and evolving tax policies could create compliance uncertainty for businesses.
A central finding across all categories is what the report describes as weak institutional control effectiveness, with many risks remaining elevated even after existing policy measures.
“This pattern appears across most dimensions in Q1 2026, confirming that businesses cannot rely on Ghana’s institutional controls alone to manage their risk exposure,” the report said.
The analysis urges companies to adopt independent risk mitigation strategies, including scenario planning for currency volatility, supply chain diversification and enhanced environmental due diligence, particularly for sectors exposed to land and water resources.
Overall, the report concludes that while Ghana’s macroeconomic stabilisation is “real and commendable,” underlying structural risks will require active management by both policymakers and businesses to sustain growth.
