Global fertilizer prices are likely to remain elevated until the end of 2026 even if geopolitical tensions in the Middle East subside, threatening food security and increasing production costs for developing economies that depend heavily on imported agricultural inputs, according to an analysis in the latest OPEC Fund Quarterly report.
The report, citing research from the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), said fertilizer markets are expected to remain under pressure because of damaged production capacity, higher energy costs and disruptions to global supply chains, even under a scenario in which hostilities end immediately.
The warning notes the vulnerability of low- and middle-income countries, where farmers rely on imported fertilizers to sustain crop yields and where rising input costs can quickly translate into higher food prices and inflation.
“Even under the most optimistic scenario of an immediate ceasefire, fertilizer prices are expected to remain elevated until the end of 2026,” the report said.
The analysis found that natural gas prices, a key determinant of fertilizer production costs, remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, particularly in the Middle East, a region that plays a central role in global energy markets. Higher energy prices have increased the cost of manufacturing nitrogen-based fertilizers, placing additional strain on agricultural producers worldwide.
For developing countries, the consequences extend beyond agriculture. Higher fertilizer costs threaten food production, worsen inflationary pressures and increase import bills at a time when many governments are already grappling with fiscal constraints and currency volatility.
The report warned that prolonged disruptions could undermine crop yields and deepen food insecurity, especially in countries that rely heavily on imports of agricultural inputs and have limited domestic production capacity.
The outlook shows the broader economic risks stemming from geopolitical conflicts, with economists cautioning that supply shocks in fertilizer markets can have lasting effects on global food systems long after military tensions ease.
According to the report, rebuilding production capacity and restoring stable supply chains will take time, meaning that agricultural markets are unlikely to return quickly to pre-conflict conditions even if peace prospects improve.
For policymakers in developing economies, the findings reinforce the need to strengthen domestic agricultural production and diversify supply sources as volatility in global commodity markets persists.
