Governments are planning to produce more than twice the fossil fuels consistent with keeping global warming to 1.5°C by 2030, pushing climate targets further out of reach and heightening economic risks, according to the 2025 Production Gap Report.
The study, produced by a coalition of research institutions and reviewed by more than 50 experts, shows global production plans are now 120% above levels required for a 1.5°C pathway and 77% above those for 2°C. That gap has widened since the last assessment in 2023.
Coal, Oil, and Gas Outlook
The report projects coal output in 2030 will be 500% above Paris-aligned levels, oil 31% higher, and gas 92% higher. Governments are also planning higher levels of coal production to 2035 and gas to 2050 than they did two years ago, with oil output continuing to rise through mid-century.
Analysts warn the expansion risks leaving economies exposed to volatile energy markets, stranded assets, and mounting costs from climate-related disasters such as floods, droughts, and heatwaves.
Africa’s Exposure
While Africa contributes the least to global emissions, it faces some of the most severe consequences of climate change. Ghana, for instance, has seen flooding disrupt cities and erratic rainfall threaten cocoa, a key export and source of jobs.
Failure by major producers to curb output will raise adaptation costs for vulnerable economies, draining already tight fiscal resources. Ghana is battling rising debt and spending heavily to cover shortfalls in its energy sector, including funds that could otherwise be directed toward health, education, or infrastructure.
Pressure for Transition
The findings add urgency to calls for countries to accelerate renewable energy adoption and link climate goals to broader economic reforms. Ghana is debating how to balance oil exploration with investments under its Renewable Energy Masterplan, while the World Bank has pressed the government to push ahead with reforms in energy and cocoa, two debt-laden sectors.
Aligning with global green finance opportunities such as carbon credits, debt-for-climate swaps, and renewable energy partnerships could open new revenue streams for Ghana while reducing reliance on fossil fuels.
Global Red Flag Ahead of COP30
The Production Gap Report warns that unless governments integrate production cuts into their next climate pledges, investments in renewables and resilient infrastructure risk being undermined by continued emissions growth.
The warning lands just weeks before COP30 in Belém, Brazil, where negotiators will face renewed pressure to align national energy plans with the Paris goals. Climate advocates say the widening gap between rhetoric and production could dominate talks, as vulnerable nations push for stronger commitments and financial support to manage the transition.
“The next decade is decisive,” the report said. “Without bold choices, the world risks not only climate catastrophe but also economic instability on an unprecedented scale.”
For Ghana and other African nations, the challenge will be to pursue reforms and attract green investment while shielding their economies from rising climate costs. COP30, they argue, must deliver more than promises, it must close the gap between ambition and action.
