In a striking divergence from the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) recent advice, Deloitte Ghana has recommended that the Bank of Ghana (BoG) intensify its liquidity support to the foreign exchange (FX) market.
This recommendation from the international professional services firm is aimed at averting potential speculative demand and currency instability.
The recommendation, published in Deloitte’s review of the 2025 Mid-Year Budget Statement, underscores growing concerns over reports of dollar scarcity for business transactions, even as Ghana’s exchange rate has remained relatively stable over the past four months.
Moreover, the foreign exchange reserves have reportedly increased in the first half of the year, hitting over $11 billion.
With the strong reserve position, Deloitte believes that the Central Bank should not sit aloof as speculation drags down the value of the local currency, hence the call to intensify support to the market.
“The perception of a lack of FX, if not checked, can influence undesirable FX demand, which can, in turn, induce some depreciation pressures in the short term,” Deloitte noted.
It continued that, “We recommend that the Central Bank intensifies its liquidity support to the FX market to avoid any excess FX demand arising from speculation.”
But the IMF Says No
Deloitte’s call comes just weeks after the IMF completed its fourth review of Ghana’s $3 billion Extended Credit Facility, urging the BoG to scale back its interventions in the FX market and allow greater exchange rate flexibility.
The Fund’s position is rooted in the view that a more hands-off, market-driven approach would enhance policy credibility and reduce distortion.
To this end, the IMF is urging the BoG to reduce its footprint in the FX market.
While the IMF is advocating for less central bank involvement to reinforce macroeconomic discipline, Deloitte is concerned about the psychological triggers of speculative demand that often precede cedi depreciation, particularly in a market where perception frequently drives reality.
The Impact of Mixed Signals
This apparent policy contradiction raises questions about the short-term versus the long-term approach to exchange rate management. The IMF’s stance supports letting the cedi find its natural level, even if that means tolerating some short-term volatility.
Deloitte, on the other hand, prioritizes stability and confidence, especially among importers and corporate entities dependent on regular FX supply.
The situation reveals the fragile psychology of Ghana’s FX market, where news of a shortage, whether real or perceived, can trigger panic buying and hoarding, ultimately undermining the very stability the BoG is working to sustain.
If the BoG heeds Deloitte’s advice and steps up FX injections, it may provide short-term relief to businesses and ease market anxiety. However, this could also be a variance with IMF expectations, potentially complicating future programme reviews or disbursement approvals under Ghana’s ongoing debt restructuring and economic support programme.
However, strict adherence to the IMF’s call for minimal intervention risks allowing perception-led volatility to spiral into actual depreciation.
The Bottom Line
At a time when Ghana’s exchange rate appears stable on the surface, beneath lies a simmering tension between global advice and local realities.
For now, the Bank of Ghana is navigating a tightrope of meeting two contrasting realities. Allowing the cedi to find its own level and risk speculation-induced depreciation of the currency, or intervening with the large accumulated reserves and keeping the cedi artificially strong.
As it stands now, the eyes of the business community, the IMF, and analysts are watching to ascertain the direction the Bank of Ghana will take.
