Afreximbank’s Q3-25 Africa Insights report argues that sustained geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China will fundamentally reshape the operating environment for African economies, with risks but also material upside for states that position with strategic discipline.
The bank notes that while the rivalry is not unprecedented, drawing lessons from the Cold War era, the structure of today’s economy means the consequences will be more directly commercial than ideological. China is expected to intensify engagement, consistent with a 70-year pattern of African prioritisation, while the United States is likely to remain selective in its exposure except where critical minerals and supply-chain security intersect with Washington’s domestic industrial agenda.
The report warns of frictions that could blunt Africa’s ability to exploit the opportunity. A sustained US turn to protectionism could curb African export earnings, while the continent’s commodity dependency causes external attention to cycle, hindering the locking-in of long-term capital and industrial partnerships.
Even so, Afreximbank stresses that a bifurcated world economy opens negotiation space. With both superpowers competing for access to critical minerals, energy transition inputs and new manufacturing basins, African states can price access, sequence partnerships, and extract technology, capital, and market concessions, provided they strengthen diplomatic and economic statecraft.
The report concludes with tactical prescriptions for policymakers, build technical capacity in foreign ministries to negotiate with major powers, institutionalise intra-African coordination and knowledge sharing, and accelerate diversification away from single-partner dependencies to preserve policy autonomy as the rivalry deepens.
