Brazil’s oil and liquids production is set to increase further in 2027 as new offshore projects ramp up, reinforcing the country’s role as one of the main sources of growth in non-OPEC supply, according to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Brazil’s liquids supply, including biofuels, is forecast to rise by about 110,000 barrels a day year-on-year in 2027 to average 4.9 million barrels a day, OPEC said in its August 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report.
The increase will be driven by higher upstream output as production scales up at the Buzios, Bacalhau and Wahoo projects, with additional oil project start-ups expected at the Buzios field and the Pampo-Enchova cluster, according to the report.
Brazil is already one of the main contributors to growth in liquids production outside the OPEC-led Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). OPEC expects non-DoC liquids production to expand by about 600,000 barrels a day in 2026, with Brazil, the US, Canada and Argentina among the main drivers. Brazil is also listed alongside Qatar, Canada and Argentina as a leading source of non-DoC supply growth in 2027.
Offshore Projects Drive Growth
Brazil’s production expansion is being supported by a series of offshore developments, particularly in the country’s pre-salt fields.
OPEC said Petrobras accelerated the Buzios 8 schedule, with the P-79 platform reported to have come online in early May 2026. PRIO has also brought new Wahoo and Frade wells online, while TotalEnergies started the Lapa South-West project in March.
The projects form part of a pipeline of offshore developments expected to add production over the coming period.
The report’s data show Brazil’s liquids production reaching about 5.26 million barrels a day in June, while crude oil production stood at about 4.47 million barrels a day.
Production Growth Faces Cost Risks
Despite the expansion plans, OPEC warned that higher development costs and cost inflation could affect the economics of offshore projects.
The report said rising costs could tighten project economics and potentially lead to delays in assumed final investment decisions.
That creates a potential constraint on the pace at which Brazil can bring additional offshore capacity into production, even as existing projects continue to ramp up.
Brazil Remains Key to Non-OPEC Supply
The country’s expected increase comes as OPEC forecasts non-DoC liquids production to grow by about 600,000 barrels a day in 2027 to an average 55.5 million barrels a day.
Brazil is among the countries expected to lead that expansion, alongside Qatar, Canada and Argentina. OPEC maintained its forecast from the previous month’s assessment.
The additional Brazilian barrels could add to competition for market share as global oil supply expands, particularly if production from other non-OPEC producers also meets expectations.
For Brazil, the continued ramp-up of offshore projects offers a path to higher production and a larger role in global crude markets, although the pace of future investment will depend partly on whether producers can contain rising development costs.
