The administration of President John Dramani Mahama may be receiving glowing reviews for its economic performance in 2025, but according to the Ranking Member on Parliament’s Economy and Development Committee, Kojo Oppong Nkrumah, there is very little that is truly new about it.
For him, every new administration in the country’s economic history enjoys what can be described as a “first year sweet spot.
In his assessment of the performance of the current administration in an exclusive interview with The High Street Journal, the Ofoase Ayirebi MP was confident that every new government in Ghana’s democratic history starts this same way. He reveals that the playbook has always been strong headlines, early praise, and a sense that “things are finally working.”
He argues this is not evidence of exceptional performance, but a familiar first-year pattern.
The First-Year Economic Playbook
Oppong Nkrumah explains to The High Street Journal that when new governments take office, they usually inherit an economy under stress. Inflation is high, the currency is weak, interest rates are elevated, and public confidence is low.
Since governments often lose power because of economic hardship, the first instinct of a new administration is to fix the economy fast. The response, he says, is almost always the same. Tight monetary policy is applied to cool inflation. Interest rates are kept high to control excess demand. If there is some goodwill or foreign exchange support, authorities intervene in the market to stabilise the currency. Once stability begins to show, there is a gradual easing to encourage lending to businesses.
This approach, he notes, is not unique to the current government. It has happened repeatedly under different administrations.
“Monetary policy and fiscal policy and even the real sector policy are functioning in the first year as they function in the first year of any new administration,” he emphasized.
Same Policies, Different Names
He notes that every new administration applies what he describes as “shock therapy” to calm things in the first year, christened under different policies and names. From the early days of Ghana’s Fourth Republic, the pattern has repeated itself.
He recounts that Yaw Osafo-Maafo did it under President Kufuor. Kwabena Duffuor did it under President Mills. Ken Ofori-Atta did it under President Akufo-Addo. Each time, the first year was marked by strong praise and catchy labels.
He narrates how Yaw Osafo Maafo was given an accolade as “Oy3deayie Osafo-Maafo.” Fiifi Kwetey then tagged Dr. Kwabena Duffour as “Unprecedented Duffuor.” Even just recently, recalls Ken Ofori-Atta, was labelled as “Abolisher-General” for abolishing a number of nuisance taxes.
Today, Oppong Nkrumah observes, the same applause cycle is playing out again, just with new faces and new slogans, with the current Finance Minister, Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson, tagged as “Ato is Forcing”
“When new governments assume power, one of the first things they want to do is to respond to the economic mishaps. And the way they do it is by reining in what is often described in economic literature as an overheated economy. So usually, you find inflation through the roof, interest rates through the roof, currencies depreciating, and growth is sometimes doing the unemployment aside,” he noted.
He continued, “So what new governments are trying to do is you apply shock therapy by trying to operate a tight monetary policy to control inflation. Where you have goodwill or some other market conditions that give you a lot of forex reserves, you do a lot of market intermediation to try and stabilise the currency. When things stabilise a bit, then you try to ease monetary policy to see if you can extend credit to the private sector on the monetary policy side.”
Tax Reliefs and Early Optimism
On the fiscal side, the story is also familiar. Oppong Nkrumah assess that governments start by promising relief. Some taxes are reduced or removed. Debt accumulation slows temporarily. People feel a bit of breathing space. Markets respond positively. Optimism rises.
This, Oppong Nkrumah says, is politically understandable. Governments want to show they are different from their predecessors. But it also sets a trap.
Once the honeymoon period passes, political pressure builds. Campaign promises resurface. Spending increases. If revenues do not rise fast enough, borrowing returns. Taxes reappear in new forms. And the early gains begin to fade.
The Real Sector on the Fence
One of his key concerns is that while monetary and fiscal policies dominate the first year, the real economy, factories, farms, and productive jobs often remains on standby.
Structural reforms, which take time and discipline, are postponed. Productivity challenges remain unresolved. Industries wait for support that never fully arrives. Growth becomes more about managing numbers than changing how the economy actually works.
“The first year fiscal side is doing the same thing. And usually the real side is just seated and waiting for what you call a cleanup, and then the second cycle to try and move. So this is how government starts in the first step,” he explained.
Where Things Usually Go Wrong
In attempting to answer the bigger question of when things usually begin to go south, Oppong Nkrumah points to overexcitement. The governments begin to believe their own headlines. Gatekeepers, instead of offering honest caution, join the praise chorus.
The deeper problems, weak productivity, inefficient public spending, and fragile institutions, are left untouched. Then it only takes one shock. Political pressure, rising demand, or external events. And the cycle resets.
He recounts that, “Governments get overexcited about the short-term gains. The gatekeepers, instead of keeping the government on its toes, join the pre-singing band. And in the outer circle, the structural issues are not addressed. So all you need is one of about three things to happen. The first thing is demand, the political demand.”
The Bottomline
The Ranking Member on the Economy and Development Committee is not downplaying the effort of the current government. Rather, he is warning against mistaking familiarity for excellence.
For him, a good first year is normal in Ghana’s political economy. The real test comes later, when discipline is harder, praise is quieter, and difficult choices must be made.
History, he argues, shows that early applause is easy. Sustained economic transformation is the real deal.
