Ghana’s era of exceptionally low inflation may not last much longer as anticipated; however, households and businesses can take comfort that the country is unlikely to relive the painful era of hyper-level or very high inflation experienced in the past years.
This is the prediction of Associate Director at Fitch Solutions, Mike Kruiniger. Fitch projects that inflation is likely to climb above the Bank of Ghana’s target range in early 2027, although it is expected to remain well below the double-digit highs that previously battered consumers and businesses.
Speaking at a review of Ghana’s 2026 Mid-Year Budget organised by PwC Ghana, Mike Kruiniger said the recent sharp decline in inflation has been supported largely by the cedi’s strong performance during the first half of 2026. However, he noted that this favourable trend is beginning to fade.
According to him, while Fitch Solutions expects the cedi to remain broadly stable over the next few quarters, the currency has now become weaker on a year-on-year basis because of what economists describe as “base effects”, where current figures are compared with unusually strong performance recorded a year earlier.
That shift, he explained, means imported goods are likely to become more expensive, increasing import-related price pressures across the economy.
“The Cedi is now weaker year-on-year. Now, what this means is that import and price purchase will become more pronounced, and that’s going to push inflation higher, overtaking the Bank of Ghana’s target range in early 2027,” he remarked.
The anticipated rise in inflation could gradually increase the cost of imported products ranging from fuel and medicines to machinery and other consumer goods, even if exchange rate movements remain relatively stable.
Kruiniger nevertheless stressed that Ghana is not expected to return to the period of runaway inflation that severely eroded purchasing power and squeezed household incomes over the past few years.
“We’re not going to go back to the very high levels of inflation we saw over the last couple of years, but the current low inflation environment is not going to be maintained in our view,” he added.
He indicated that the expected increase in price pressures could also contribute to a modest cooling of economic growth in 2027, as higher prices weigh on consumer spending and business activity.
His outlook suggests that while Ghana’s disinflation story remains largely intact, maintaining price stability will become increasingly challenging as temporary exchange-rate benefits fade, requiring continued prudent monetary and fiscal management to keep inflation from accelerating further.
