Databank Research has projected relative stability for the Ghana cedi in 2026, forecasting a year-end depreciation of 7.20 percent against the US dollar.
In its 2026 Economic Outlook, the firm expects the cedi to close the year at approximately GH¢12.85 to the dollar, assuming no major systemic shocks disrupt the economy.
The forecast takes into account anticipated demand pressures from bulk importers, energy-related payments and upcoming Eurobond obligations.
It is anchored on a conservative assumption of monthly inflows of about GH¢750 million from GOLDBOD, alongside ongoing reforms within the small-scale mining sector.
According to the report, sustained gold-backed inflows are expected to bolster the central bank’s ability to manage foreign exchange market expectations and smooth volatility.
Beyond domestic factors, the outlook reflects positive external sentiment, supported by continued programme backing from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
The report also highlights evolving global reserve management trends, noting that some central banks are gradually reducing reliance on the US dollar while increasing gold holdings.
China is identified as leading this shift amid uncertainty surrounding United States policy direction.
Databank Research further points to ongoing discussions around reclassifying gold from a Tier 1 asset to High-Quality Liquid Asset (HQLA) status.
If implemented, the move would allow gold to serve as eligible collateral in repo financing and could mark a structural evolution in the global financial system.
Although deliberations within the BRICS grouping remain tentative due to concerns over volatility, custody and trust, such a shift could enhance gold’s monetary role, reduce dollar dominance and indirectly support cedi stability through stronger reserve accumulation.
Excluding this low-probability structural adjustment, Databank maintains a neutral-to-positive outlook for the cedi in 2026, citing tighter foreign exchange regulations and resilient reserve buffers considered adequate to absorb moderate demand pressures.
