Economist Dr. Evans Nunoo has urged Ghana to use its recent trade surplus as an opportunity to promote sustainable exports that directly benefit the real sector of the economy. According to him, while the surplus is welcome, it should serve as a springboard for developing productive export industries that create jobs and bring tangible gains to citizens.
“The surplus is welcome, but the real test is whether Ghana can use it to build sustainable export sectors,” Dr. Nunoo stated in an interview. He cautioned that without strategic investment in value addition and diversification, Ghana’s export growth will remain heavily dependent on commodities and vulnerable to global price fluctuations.
Recent data from the Bank of Ghana show that the country recorded a provisional trade surplus of US$5.57 billion in the first half of 2025, with export earnings reaching about US$13.79 billion and imports estimated at US$8.22 billion. The figures mark one of Ghana’s strongest external positions in recent years, helping to stabilise the cedi and ease pressure on foreign reserves.
Gold remains the dominant export, contributing roughly US$8.3 billion in receipts. Cocoa and crude oil followed, though their volumes were slightly constrained by production and logistics challenges. Analysts, however, caution that the surplus may be overstated if adjusted for what truly accrues to Ghana domestically.
Oil exports, for instance, yield limited direct benefit. Experts estimate that only about 18 percent of Ghana’s oil export value remains in the local economy after accounting for profit repatriation and international partnerships. This means that the headline export figures often exaggerate the true inflow of revenue that supports local development.
In light of this, economists say Ghana should focus on exports that deliver real value, such as processed cocoa, refined gold, and non-traditional exports rather than relying almost entirely on raw commodity sales. “Our goal should be to make trade surpluses mean something to real people,” Dr. Nunoo added.
The Bank of Ghana’s Summary of Financial and Economic Data indicates that Ghana maintained monthly surpluses throughout the first eight months of 2025, reflecting higher global prices for gold and cocoa and lower import demand due to fiscal consolidation. The central bank said the stronger external position had helped to rebuild international reserves and boost market confidence in the cedi.
However, several analysts warn that a trade surplus on paper does not automatically translate into improved living conditions for Ghanaians. They argue that unless the country uses this moment to deepen local production, improve logistics, and encourage value addition, the benefits will remain concentrated in the extractive sector.
To make the surplus count, policymakers are being urged to incentivise processing and manufacturing, develop export linkages with small-scale producers, and strengthen trade-related infrastructure. Such measures would ensure that export earnings circulate within the local economy rather than flow out through imports and profit repatriation.
Ghana’s trade outlook for the rest of 2025 remains cautiously optimistic, supported by steady commodity prices and improving fiscal discipline. Yet experts agree that turning the surplus into a true development milestone will require sustained structural reforms that connect headline trade data to livelihoods and inclusive growth.
As Dr. Nunoo concluded, “A trade surplus is good news, but its true value lies in how it transforms the lives of ordinary people, not just in what the figures say.”
