Cocoa prices rose above US$5,300 per tonne on Friday as traders became concerned about possible challenges to future cocoa supplies from major producing countries, including Ghana.
The international cocoa market price for September 2026 rose to US$5,397 per tonne on July 31, gaining US$285 or 5.58% in one day.
The increase came as the market continued to watch developments in Ghana and other cocoa-producing countries ahead of the next harvest season.
Ghana’s cocoa regulator, COCOBOD, has warned that cocoa production could fall in the 2026/27 season due to heavy rainfall, disease challenges and other difficulties affecting cocoa farms.
Because Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire produce a large share of the world’s cocoa, any expected reduction in output can affect global prices.
However, the recent rise is not only linked to Ghana. Traders are also considering weather conditions, production expectations in other cocoa-producing countries and whether high cocoa prices are affecting chocolate sales.
Cocoa prices had earlier climbed to an eight-month high of US$6,455 per tonne on July 9 before falling below US$5,200 as concerns grew that expensive cocoa was pushing up chocolate prices and reducing consumer demand.
Major chocolate companies are now being watched closely for signs of how consumers are responding. Swiss chocolate maker Lindt has indicated that it may reduce prices in some markets later this year to encourage sales.
At the same time, expectations of increased cocoa production in countries such as Indonesia have provided some relief to the market. The International Cocoa Organization expects Indonesia’s output to rise to 220,000 tonnes in the 2025/26 season from 200,000 tonnes previously.
For Ghana, higher cocoa prices could increase export earnings and government revenue. However, farmers will only fully benefit if production improves and challenges such as ageing farms, diseases and declining yields are addressed.
