While the Bank of Ghana has been hailed for its “monetary performance in 2025, experts are warning that the nation’s current currency stability and record-low inflation cannot survive on central bank policy alone. To maintain these hard-won gains, the focus must now shift urgently to the “Real Sector”, comprising agriculture, industry, and trade, where genuine productivity serves as the only sustainable long-term anchor for a strong cedi.
According to US-based Monetary Economist Dr. Dennis Nsafoah, the cedi’s remarkable appreciation in 2025—moving from nearly GH¢15.80 to around GH¢10.80 per dollar by mid-year, was a direct result of aggressive monetary tightening. By strategically withdrawing cedi liquidity from the system and slowing the growth of bank reserves, the Bank of Ghana effectively dampened the excess demand for foreign exchange. Dr. Nsafoah pointed out that this contraction in liquidity reinforced disinflation and drove the shift from depreciation to appreciation.
However, economists warn that relying solely on “starving the system of cash” is a temporary shield. For stability to endure, the economy must produce more of what it consumes and exports.
While the central bank has performed its role, there is a growing consensus that the Ministry of Trade, Agribusiness and Industry must become significantly more vibrant to complement these efforts. As monetary policy “bites” to keep inflation low, the industrial sector must step in to fill the supply gap with locally manufactured goods. Without a surge in local production, any future relaxation of monetary policy could lead to a renewed appetite for imports, putting the cedi back under pressure. Industry watchers are calling for the Ministry of Trade, Agribusiness and Industry to move beyond administrative roles and take the lead in making local production competitive, ensuring the “Made in Ghana” drive is backed by quality and consistent supply.
The agriculture sector remains the most critical frontier for sustaining low inflation. With food inflation recently dropping to 4.9%, the push for agribusiness must be relentless to prevent seasonal price shocks that often derail macroeconomic targets. The government’s 24-Hour Economy agenda is seen as the perfect vehicle for this transformation, but analysts are calling for more “real action” on the ground. By transitioning from subsistence farming to 24-hour agro-processing units, Ghana can add value to raw materials, create jobs, and drastically reduce the massive import bill for basic food items.
The “Big Push” infrastructure agenda will provide a vital lifeline through improved roads and electricity, but it is the actual productivity from farms and factories that will ultimately provide the foreign exchange needed to back the cedi. For the currency to remain stable without the Bank of Ghana having to keep liquidity perpetually tight, a synchronized effort is required. The Ministry of Trade must aggressively promote export-led growth while the Ministry of Food and Agriculture scales up “Feed Ghana” initiatives to secure food prices.
