When people hear “Hormuz,” their minds usually jump to oil. But this narrow waterway off the coast of Iran and Oman is about much more than petroleum, it’s also the linchpin in the global agricultural supply chain. Roughly 20–30% of all seaborne fertilizer trade, including urea, ammonia, phosphates, and sulfur, passes through the Strait of Hormuz, alongside about a fifth of global crude oil and large volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
When that route is disrupted, the shock waves are not limited to fuel markets or distant geopolitical debates: they reverberate through fertilizer markets, feed into global food prices, and threaten the ability of countries like Ghana to feed their people.
Why Fertilizer Matters — and Why It’s Vulnerable
Fertilizer isn’t a luxury or an optional input, it’s a foundation of modern agriculture. Synthetic nitrogen fertilizers alone are estimated to support nearly half of the world’s food production. These products are energy‑intensive to manufacture, often made from natural gas or other fossil feedstocks, and depend on stable global trade flows to reach farmers around the world.
Because most nations do not produce sufficient fertilizer domestically, they rely on international markets and just‑in‑time delivery systems. That means even short interruptions in supply, like a disruption of transit through a key chokepoint, can quickly tighten availability, push up prices, and strain budgets from Amsterdam to Accra. Fertilizer is not easily substitutable at scale, so countries with limited domestic production have few immediate options when global supply falters.
The Strait of Hormuz Disruption — A Perfect Storm
In early March 2026, escalating conflict in the Middle East, involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, led to attacks on shipping and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil prices surged, but it’s the compounded effects on fertilizers and commodity shipping that could matter most for food security outcomes.
According to agriculture market watchers, the conflict has slashed shipping flows through the strait by as much as 70%, driving up freight costs, war‑risk insurance premiums, and logistical uncertainty. Because many fertilizers are exported from the Gulf and travel through Hormuz, markets have tightened, and key fertilizer price benchmarks have risen sharply within days of the disruption.
This isn’t hypothetical. Norway’s largest fertilizer producer has warned that a prolonged blockage could seriously reduce global crop yields and threaten food supplies, especially in countries that cannot outbid richer nations for scarce fertilizer stocks.
Ghana’s Deep Dependence on Imported Fertilizer
For Ghana, the stakes are particularly high. The country does not manufacture basic mineral fertilizer domestically. Instead, nearly all the fertilizer used by Ghana’s farmers, whether nitrogen, phosphates, or blended compounds, is imported as raw materials or finished products, then distributed through private importers and local blending plants.
Ghana’s fertilizer imports also fluctuate with global market conditions. In recent years, global supply shocks like the Russia–Ukraine war pushed prices up sharply, forcing Ghana to cut back on imports and placing upward pressure on domestic fertilizer costs.
In 2020, Ghana imported hundreds of thousands of metric tons of fertilizer, but shortages triggered by global disruptions saw consumption decline by more than 60% in some periods, underscoring how dependent the country is on stable world markets.
Because fertilizer is often sold under government subsidy programs or through private credit lines to smallholder farmers, any sharp price rise or supply delay directly hurts farmers’ planting decisions and yields. Without adequate fertilizer, staple crops like maize, rice, and even cocoa, a key export, risk lower productivity, which translates into less food on tables and higher prices at markets.
Food Security Risk — Local and Global
The ripple effects extend far beyond individual farms.
- Higher fertilizer costs feed directly into food prices because fertilizer is a key input cost for nearly all major crops. When fertilizer prices climb, farmers face tighter margins. If they pass costs to consumers, staple food prices rise, driving inflation, squeezing household incomes, and tightening food security for low‑income families.
- Global competition for limited supplies intensifies the risk. Wealthier countries with deeper pockets may secure scarce fertilizer supplies, leaving import‑dependent nations like Ghana at a disadvantage. This dynamic can force Ghana to pay higher prices or reduce allocations to smallholder farmers, deepening the threat to domestic food security.
- Lower yields can hasten food shortages. Even a modest reduction in fertilizer availability can significantly dampen crop outputs, especially for nitrogen‑dependent cereals. Over time, this creates a tighter food supply backdrop with higher risk of shortages during lean seasons or drought years.
- Finally, inflation and macroeconomic strain are likely to follow. Rising food prices add to broader inflationary pressures, especially in economies already grappling with currency volatility, rising energy costs, and tightening foreign exchange reserves, all of which are already being influenced by the same global tensions that disrupted Hormuz shipping.
The current crisis lays bare a structural vulnerability: dependency on imported agricultural inputs exposes Ghana to external shocks far beyond its borders. This reality calls for strategic policy responses.
Connected Worlds, Connected Risks
The disruption at the Strait of Hormuz shows how a disturbance thousands of kilometers away can shake food bowls in Accra, Nairobi, and Dakar just as strongly as it shakes oil markets in New York and London. In a globalised agricultural system built on tightly interlinked supply chains, fertilizer is a silent but potent driver of food security. When its flow is interrupted, the threat is not just to crop yields, it’s to economic stability, inflation control, and, above all, the ability of ordinary families to put food on the table.
In Ghana’s context, where nearly all fertilizer is imported and where agriculture remains central to livelihoods, the risk is not theoretical. It is immediate, real, and a call to rethink how food security is safeguarded in an increasingly fragile global trade environment.
