As the crisis around the closure of the Strait of Hormuz escalates due to the Middle East Crisis, it is emerging that too much of the global conversation has fixated on fuel prices and tanker routes, leaving out a very important subject of food.
Beneath the loud conversation over fuel lies a quieter and more dangerous story, one that could hit Africa harder and longer, which is agriculture.
According to Ronald Mlalazi of the Africa Supply Chain Confederation, the crisis unfolding in Hormuz is not just an energy disruption. It is a full-blown supply chain shock that extends deep into the very systems that feed the continent.
The Real Crisis Isn’t at the Pump
What has made the conversations about fuel price hikes very prevalent is that they are visible. They flash on digital boards at filling stations, trigger transport fare increases, and dominate headlines.
But fertiliser shortages get drowned. They are normally unnoticed until it’s too late, when food prices begin to respond.
Ronald Mlalaze reveals that the same shipping corridor that carries crude oil also transports fertilisers, petrochemicals, and key agricultural inputs. And for many African economies, particularly in East and Southern Africa, this dependence is not incidental; it is structural.
Countries like Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia, and Zambia rely heavily on fertiliser imports routed through the Strait of Hormuz. In some cases, more than half of their supplies pass through that narrow, now volatile waterway.
A Silent Surge With Loud Consequences
The President of ASCON reveals that the warning signs are already flashing. Urea prices have reportedly surged by as much as 50% since the conflict began.
Supply constraints are tightening. And with planting seasons fast approaching in several regions, the timing could not be worse.
For farmers, this could mean that higher fertiliser costs mean reduced application. Reduced application means lower yields. Lower yields mean a tighter food supply.
And a tighter food supply means higher food prices.
From Farms to Families
In many African economies, food accounts for the largest share of household spending. Unlike fuel, where consumption can sometimes be adjusted, food demand is inelastic.
In simple terms, you cannot “cut back” on feeding your family.
This is where the Hormuz disruption becomes truly dangerous. It moves from geopolitics to kitchen tables, from shipping lanes to survival.
For the President of ASCON, what began as a maritime bottleneck is gradually ending as food inflation on a plate.
A Misplaced Emphasis?
The global fixation on oil risks overshadowing a more systemic threat. ASCON does not discount conversations of fuel. However, it notes that food security is existential.
By focusing primarily on fuel supply disruptions, policymakers and analysts may be underestimating the second-order effects, which are the cascading impact on agriculture, food production, and ultimately, social stability.
Time to Rethink the Response
The response so far to the disruptions has been described as “energy-centric.” But if the fertiliser pipeline continues to tighten, Africa may face a slower, deeper crisis, which will unfold over months rather than days.
ASCON is therefore recommending that economies that rely on the Hormuz or farm inputs diversify fertiliser supply chains. They must also accelerate local production where possible.
In addition, there should be support for farmers with targeted interventions
The Bottomline
For ASCON, the closure, or even partial disruption, of the Strait of Hormuz is not just an oil shock. It is a food shock in the making.
And while the world watches fuel gauges, Africa may soon be forced to confront a more fundamental issue of food.
