Ahead of the 2026 Budget Presentation to Parliament, Assistant Professor of Economics at Niagara University and a member of Tesah Capital’s Research Committee, Dennis Nsafoah, reveals that Ghanaians will be looking for more than just figures and forecasts.
The economist says the budget must answer two critical questions. First, has the economy truly turned the corner after years of turbulence? And secondly, will the government remain cautious or embrace bold transformation?
The Assistant Professor of Economics explains that after a bruising three-year period defined by runaway inflation, a debt crisis, and a currency in free fall, Ghana’s economic indicators are finally pointing in the right direction. This makes the two questions critical to be answered.
The Numbers
In his article titled “Ghana’s 2026 Budget: The Economy Has Turned the Corner, But the Real Test Begins,” copied to The High Street Journal, the economist recounted that inflation has plunged from 54.1% in 2022 to just 8% as of October 2025.
The cedi, once battered, has appreciated by over 25% this year, and public debt has dropped sharply from 93.3% of GDP in 2022 to 44.9% by mid-2025.
Foreign reserves now cover 4.5 months of imports, up from less than one month three years ago, and GDP growth has doubled to 6.3% in the second quarter of 2025. The turnaround has been strong enough to convince global rating agencies like S&P to upgrade Ghana’s outlook, confirming a renewed sense of credibility.
The Big Question: Stability or Transformation?
Yet, behind the favourable macroeconomic indicators, Dennis Nsafoah argues that the budget must present evidence to show this purported transformation is real and not a hoax.
In addition, he notes that the budget statement must be clear on the cause of action of the government. The government, he says, now faces a defining choice: whether to maintain a conservative, risk-averse path that keeps things steady, or take a bold leap toward a more diversified, innovation-driven economy.
“When Finance Minister presents the 2026 Budget on Thursday, November 13, 2025, all eyes will be on two things. First, whether there’s convincing evidence that Ghana’s economy has indeed turned the corner after three difficult years. And second, whether the government will maintain a cautious, conservative path or chart a bold new course toward transformational growth,” he noted.
For him, the stability must not be mistaken for transformation. “Macroeconomic stability is not an end in itself,” he notes. “It is the springboard to inclusive growth, job creation, and structural transformation,” he added.
The Investment Gap Holding Growth Back
The economist points to one major red flag, which must be taken seriously: low capital spending. Despite the impressive fiscal recovery, Ghana’s investment in infrastructure remains weak.
In the first half of 2025, the government spent GHS 17 billion on capital projects, representing only 1.4% of GDP.
That level, he warns, is far below what is needed to sustain growth and crowd in private investment. “Without a strategic shift toward productive spending in sectors like manufacturing, green energy, and technology, the economy risks settling into a fragile equilibrium, stable but stagnant,” he noted.
A Moment of Decision for Government
As Parliament prepares for the Finance Minister’s presentation, expectations are high. The 2026 Budget, Nsafoah insists, should not only celebrate restored stability but also map out a clear path for transformation.
The challenge, he adds, is balancing fiscal discipline with targeted ambition, channeling resources into areas that stimulate productivity while keeping the macroeconomic fundamentals intact.
Will the government continue to play it safe, consolidating gains from the IMF program? Or will it step out with a bold, forward-looking plan that sets Ghana on a transformative growth path?
