As Zambia approaches the presidential, parliamentary and local government elections of August 13, 2026, the strongest leadership argument will not be built only around political change. It will be built around economic competence. The country needs a government capable of expanding productive businesses, strengthening corporate confidence, growing regional trade, attracting responsible investment and converting national wealth into rising household incomes.
Mr Brian Muntayalwa Mundubile enters this national debate with a manifesto that places economic transformation at its centre. Its published architecture calls for an economy reorganised around production, exports and value creation; a lower cost of doing business; employment, tax relief and wage growth; dependable energy; digital transformation; provincial growth engines; tourism; women’s enterprise and youth empowerment. It also presents Zambia as a prospective regional logistics hub rather than a permanently landlocked economy.
That direction speaks directly to Zambia’s economic geography. The country shares borders with eight African states and sits at the intersection of the Democratic Republic of Congo’s mineral economy, Tanzania’s Indian Ocean gateway, Angola’s Atlantic corridor, Southern Africa’s commercial markets and the growing continental opportunities of the African Continental Free Trade Area. Mundubile’s economic case is therefore strongest when it is framed not simply as an opposition platform, but as a business, trade and investment proposition for Zambia and its neighbours.
The manifesto sets the strategic direction. The practical test is whether that direction can be converted into measurable programmes, predictable laws and bankable projects. The following business and trade agenda shows how Mundubile’s published priorities can be translated into national growth, stronger companies, expanded African collaboration and improved family incomes.
Zambia’s Business Test in Contemporary Figures
Zambia enters the 2026 election with improving macroeconomic indicators, but with a mixed corporate and household picture. The data show both the opportunity and the unfinished work.
| Economic indicator | Contemporary position | Business and household meaning |
| Gross domestic product | Preliminary GDP at current prices reached K725.6 billion in 2025. Wholesale and retail trade, mining, transport, construction and manufacturing together accounted for 64.2 per cent. | Growth depends heavily on sectors that require reliable power, transport, finance, predictable regulation and functioning consumer demand. |
| Growth outlook | Real GDP expanded by 3.8 per cent in 2025. The IMF projected 4.3 per cent for 2026, while the Government projected 6.4 per cent. The World Bank projected an average of 4.7 per cent for 2026 to 2028. | The election is partly a contest over how Zambia can move from recovery to sustained, employment-creating and productivity-driven growth. |
| Prices and finance | Annual inflation fell to 6.8 per cent in April 2026. The Bank of Zambia reduced the policy rate to 13.25 per cent in May 2026, although firms still reported elevated lending risk and a continuing dependence on retained earnings. | Lower inflation helps families, but affordable long-term business finance remains essential for expansion, machinery, farms and new employment. |
| Debt and reserves | Public debt declined from 133.4 per cent of GDP in 2023 to 100.1 per cent in 2025. Gross reserves reached US$5.5 billion, equal to 4.8 months of imports, by December 2025. | Macroeconomic stability must be protected, while public spending is redirected towards infrastructure and private sector productivity rather than uncontrolled borrowing. |
| Trade structure | In October 2025, exports were K30.8 billion and imports were K29.6 billion. Non traditional exports were K9.1 billion, with the DRC accounting for 40.5 per cent of those earnings. | Regional markets already support Zambian electricity, cement, agricultural products, industrial inputs and services. The next step is to deepen value addition and widen the export base. |
| Copper dependence | Copper generates about 70 per cent of export earnings and more than 10 per cent of GDP. Zambia also holds about 6 per cent of known global copper reserves. | The central challenge is to turn mineral investment into Zambian suppliers, skills, tax revenue, manufacturing, logistics and household purchasing power. |
| Population and poverty | The World Bank estimated a population of 21.9 million, with 14.4 million people living below US$3 a day. | Economic policy must be judged by the number of productive livelihoods it creates, not only by headline growth or foreign investment announcements. |
Sources: Zambia Statistics Agency, Bank of Zambia, World Bank, IMF and Reuters.
The Mundubile Economic Doctrine: Production, Exports and Value Creation
Mundubile’s manifesto states that Zambia’s economy would be re-engineered around production, exports and value creation. This is an important departure from an economic model in which mineral exports, imported finished goods and government consumption dominate national attention. A production-based economy must reward the farmer who produces, the manufacturer who adds value, the transport company that moves goods, the bank that finances expansion, the technology firm that improves efficiency and the household that supplies labour and enterprise.
The platform’s ambition to attain upper middle income status within five years and high income status within ten to fifteen years is highly demanding. It cannot be achieved by rhetoric or government expenditure alone. It would require years of strong productivity growth, increased private investment, reliable energy, export diversification, institutional credibility and disciplined public finance.
1. Restore policy certainty and rebuild investor confidence
Investors do not only compare tax rates. They compare the predictability of laws, the reliability of electricity, the speed of licences, the enforceability of contracts, the integrity of procurement and the consistency of public officials. Mundubile’s governance and economic chapters therefore belong together. A government that promises production and exports must also promise commercial certainty.
2. Lower the cost of doing business and expand corporate finance
The Bank of Zambia’s May 2026 business survey found that retained earnings remained the main source of investment finance, while bank borrowing ranked second. This reveals a structural weakness. Firms cannot scale rapidly when expansion depends mainly on profits already earned. A Mundubile administration would therefore deepen credit guarantee systems, invoice finance, leasing, export finance, warehouse receipt finance and long-term local currency instruments. Banks would be encouraged to assess viable cash flows and supply contracts, while pension and insurance funds should have safe channels for financing infrastructure, housing, logistics and productive enterprises.
3. Turn copper wealth into Zambian corporate supply chains
Mundubile’s production and value creation agenda would establish supplier development centres in the Copperbelt and North Western Province, connect Zambian firms to mine procurement plans, support quality certification and use partial credit guarantees to help capable local companies purchase equipment. Copper should feed cables, transformers, electrical components, construction materials, renewable energy systems and regional infrastructure, not leave the country only as an export statistic.
4. Build provincial industrial growth engines
Each province would have a commercially grounded specialisation linked to its resources and markets. Copperbelt and Northwestern Province would deepen mining services and mineral processing. Central and Eastern Provinces can expand agro processing, storage and logistics. Southern Province would combine agriculture, tourism, energy and cross-border commerce. Northern and Muchinga would link agriculture, aquaculture, forestry, tourism and TAZARA-based trade. Western Province would benefit from livestock, rice, timber, tourism and the Lobito connection. Lusaka would strengthen finance, technology, professional services and regional headquarters activity.
5. Make agriculture a business and a regional food security industry
Agriculture would be treated as an integrated commercial system rather than as a seasonal input distribution exercise. Zambia’s 2025 maize recovery demonstrated the country’s production potential, but a large harvest would create fiscal and storage pressure when the state is expected to purchase excessive volumes. The solution is not to weaken farmers. It is to strengthen private grain marketing, commodity exchanges, warehousing, contract farming, processing and regional exports.
6. Treat energy security as industrial policy
No corporate growth strategy can survive prolonged power shortages. The 2023 to 2024 drought exposed the vulnerability of a hydro-dependent electricity system, while planned mining and manufacturing expansion will increase demand. Mundubile’s manifesto correctly treats energy transition and power security as the foundation of Zambia’s industrial future.
7. Convert borders and corridors into engines of corporate growth
A Mundubile trade strategy would measure border performance in hours, not promises. Customs, standards, immigration, health and security agencies should share digital systems. One-stop border posts should operate continuously where traffic justifies it. Truck queues, unofficial charges, repeated inspections and paper documentation should be reduced through a national single window and interoperable systems with neighbouring states.
8. Lead African trade diplomacy through COMESA, SADC, AfCFTA and the Tripartite market
Zambia already belongs to COMESA, SADC, the African Continental Free Trade Area and the Tripartite Free Trade Area. These memberships provide access to progressively larger markets, but agreements create value only when firms can satisfy standards, obtain finance, move goods and receive payment.
Mundubile would use these arrangements to negotiate mutual recognition of standards, remove non-tariff barriers, expand digital certificates of origin, protect fair competition and promote Zambian products through permanent commercial missions.
9. Place households at the centre of business and trade policy
Mundubile’s message of Nakulu Mutinta Nemisepela Pamakasa would economically engage women and young people to participate in formal markets. Women dominate many small trading and household enterprises, while young people supply the energy required for logistics, digital services, manufacturing, agriculture, tourism and the creative economy.
From Strategy to Economic Impact
| Mundubile strategy | Corporate and investor effect | Regional and household effect |
| Predictable law and transparent investment approvals | Reduces policy risk and encourages longer-term capital commitments. | Protects jobs, tax revenue and confidence across political transitions. |
| Local content and supplier development | Creates a larger market for Zambian manufacturers, contractors and professional firms. | Generates skilled employment and circulates mining income through communities. |
| Provincial industrial clusters and MFEZs | Lowers infrastructure costs and enables shared services, logistics and export production. | Spreads opportunity beyond Lusaka and established mining towns. |
| Agriculture, storage and agro processing | Creates bankable supply chains for processors, retailers, exporters and insurers. | Raises rural incomes, reduces food losses and improves regional food security. |
| Diversified and reliable energy | Reduces production interruptions and makes new mining and manufacturing investment viable. | Protects household businesses, services and food cold chains. |
| Digital borders and transport corridors | Cuts delivery times, inventory costs and uncertainty for traders and transporters. | Lowers consumer prices and expands market access for small traders and farmers. |
| AfCFTA, COMESA and SADC commercial diplomacy | Opens larger markets and supports joint ventures, standards recognition and export finance. | Creates wider employment and enterprise opportunities across African value chains. |
| Women and youth enterprise participation | Expands the formal business base, innovation and workforce supply. | Strengthens household incomes, inclusion and social stability. |
Conclusion
Zambia’s 2026 election is a leadership test, but it is equally a business and household income test. The country has restored a measure of macroeconomic stability and made progress in debt restructuring. The next stage must convert that foundation into productive companies, competitive exports, reliable power, efficient borders, stronger African partnerships and rising incomes.
Hon. Brian Mundubile’s published programme offers a clear strategic spine: production, exports, value creation, lower business costs, energy security, digital transformation, decentralised growth, employment, wage growth, tourism and empowerment. Its strongest national appeal lies in connecting those themes into a coherent private sector and regional trade strategy.
This is the economic meaning of Zambia’s growth gateway. Mundubile’s challenge is to prove that he can assemble the team, discipline, partnerships and measurable commitments required to open it. If he does, his candidacy can move beyond the politics of replacement and become a credible proposition for national production, African economic collaboration and shared prosperity.
