Global food prices are expected to decline in 2025, according to the World Bank’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook. The Bank’s food price index is forecast to fall by 7% year-on-year, with all three major components such as grains, oils and meals, and other foods are expected to drop.
Grain prices are projected to fall the most, by 11%, largely due to a significant 29% plunge in rice prices, driven by abundant supplies and India’s easing of export restrictions.
India, which accounts for about 40% of global rice exports, is expected to increase production by 5%, contributing to a 2% rise in global rice output for the 2024-25 season.
Rice prices are expected to stabilize in 2026, as a modest increase in global production is likely to be matched by similar growth in consumption, according to preliminary estimates from the International Grains Council.
Wheat prices are also projected to dip in the 2025-26 period. Although near-record production levels are anticipated, consumption is expected to slightly outpace output, resulting in a drawdown in global stocks.
Trade tensions are weighing on demand, but limited supply is helping to support prices.
Maize prices are forecast to decline by 2% in both 2025 and 2026, influenced by lower crude oil prices, which reduce demand for maize-based ethanol.
Increased tariffs in U.S.-China trade and a recent pricing edge over soybeans and wheat are expected to boost maize planting, contributing to a production rebound.
However, the price drop will be contained by historically tight inventories, forecast to hit their lowest levels in over a decade.
By 2026, the World Bank expects food prices to stabilize across all categories, following the declines projected for the previous year.
