For many years, the development strategy for many nations seemed straightforward, which was to produce more, export more, and prosperity would follow. It appears to be the path that helped transform several Asian economies into global manufacturing powerhouses.
But according to the World Bank, that playbook may no longer be enough for countries like Ghana and other emerging markets and developing nations (EMDEs).
In its latest report titled “The Global Jobs Challenge”, the World Bank warns that slowing global economic growth, weaker international trade, subdued investment, and heightened uncertainty are making export-led development far more difficult than it was for previous generations of emerging economies.
The warning comes at a critical time for Ghana specifically, where exports remain heavily concentrated in gold, crude oil, and cocoa. While these commodities continue to generate foreign exchange, they have created relatively few jobs compared with the country’s rapidly expanding working-age population or labour force.
The challenge is becoming increasingly urgent. Over the next decade, millions of young Africans, including Ghanaians, will enter the labour market seeking decent employment. Yet the global economy is growing more slowly, reducing demand for exports and limiting opportunities for countries hoping to industrialise through foreign markets.
The World Bank argues that emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) will likely find it harder to replicate the export-driven growth models that powered the economic rise of countries such as China and several East Asian economies.
“The global economic backdrop accentuates the jobs challenge. Global growth has slowed markedly in recent decades, amid weak investment, modest trade growth, and elevated uncertainty. Potential growth is projected to remain low in EMDEs over the current decade. The overlapping crises of recent years have put strain on fiscal positions, constraining scope for policy action. Export-led growth strategies that helped power development in some countries in the past may be harder for EMDEs to execute going forward,” parts of the report cited by The High Street Journal read.
Given Ghana’s case, the implications extend beyond trade. The country is already grappling with constrained public finances following years of elevated debt and repeated economic shocks, limiting the government’s ability to stimulate large-scale job creation through public spending.
The World Bank also notes that many countries facing the biggest employment challenge, including those across Sub-Saharan Africa, are entering this demographic transition with weaker institutions, lower productivity, skill shortages, and tighter fiscal conditions than countries that successfully navigated similar transitions decades ago.
At the same time, rapid advances in technologies such as artificial intelligence are reshaping global production, introducing new opportunities but also increasing uncertainty about where future jobs will come from.
The report therefore suggests that Ghana’s long-term growth strategy will increasingly depend on building a more diversified economy, raising productivity, strengthening domestic industries, investing in skills, and creating an environment where the private sector can generate employment beyond traditional commodity exports.
