Global cocoa prices have climbed back above US$5,000 per tonne, driven by persistent heavy rainfall across Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire that has heightened concerns over the upcoming harvest, despite weakening global demand for chocolate.
The price rebound presents both opportunities and risks for Ghana, the world’s second-largest cocoa producer. Higher prices could increase export earnings for beans currently reaching international markets, but slowing chocolate consumption could weigh on future demand and revenue.
Cocoa futures traded at around US$5,050 per tonne this week, close to their highest level since January. The market has experienced significant volatility in recent weeks, falling from nearly US$5,250 per tonne in late June before rebounding as investors reacted to adverse weather conditions and covered short positions.
Although prices have recovered, they remain about 60 percent below the record highs recorded in late 2024, when severe supply shortages pushed cocoa above US$12,000 per tonne.
Weather has become the dominant influence on the market. Above-average rainfall across major cocoa-growing areas in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire has supported pod development but has also increased the risk of flooding, poor road access and fungal diseases such as black pod and brown rot.
Farmers have warned that prolonged wet conditions could reduce harvesting activities and affect bean quality if drier weather does not arrive during July. Industry observers consider this month crucial in determining the prospects for the main crop, which begins around October.
Despite the recent price increase, current supply levels remain relatively strong.
Export data indicate that cocoa arrivals at ports in Côte d’Ivoire reached approximately 1.91 million tonnes by late June, representing an increase of about 18 percent compared with the same period last season.
Nigeria has also reported higher cocoa exports, while certified global cocoa stockpiles have risen to their highest levels in nearly two years, helping to ease immediate supply pressures.
However, analysts are increasingly concerned about the longer-term outlook.
Early forecasts suggest that Côte d’Ivoire’s 2026/27 cocoa harvest could decline to around 1.8 million tonnes, reflecting the impact of ageing cocoa trees, reduced fertiliser application and the potential return of El Niño, which typically brings drier conditions to West Africa.
Preliminary field surveys have also identified weaker-than-normal young pod formation, raising concerns about next season’s production.
On the demand side, high chocolate prices continue to discourage consumer spending.
Swiss chocolate manufacturer Lindt & Sprüngli is experiencing its weakest stock market performance in 17 years after raising product prices by 19 percent in 2025 to offset record cocoa costs.
The company has since lowered its 2026 organic sales growth forecast to between 4 and 6 percent, down from its previous expectation of 6 to 8 percent, citing weaker consumer confidence and rising transport and packaging costs.
The company has already begun reducing prices on selected products in Switzerland and Germany, with market analysts expecting further price adjustments to stimulate demand.
Industry experts note that falling cocoa prices are unlikely to provide immediate relief for chocolate manufacturers because many companies purchase cocoa months in advance through fixed contracts.
As a result, most producers are still processing cocoa bought at much higher prices and may not fully benefit from lower market prices until late 2026 or 2027.
For Ghana and other cocoa-producing countries, the coming weeks will be critical.
Rainfall patterns throughout July, together with fresh field surveys, will determine whether current supply concerns develop into a genuine production shortfall or whether attention shifts back to abundant global inventories and softer consumer demand.
