Ghanaians, currently, are reliving the blues of persistent power outages, localized as dumsor. The return to this menace has reignited public frustration and confusion.
Social media is awash with the frustration and desperation of many Ghanaians affected by the outage. Amid the challenge, checks on the official data on the country’s energy production and demand raise a crucial question. Why is a nation with excess power generation capacity now battling to keep the lights on.
On paper, the country has more than enough electricity to meet demand. Yet, in reality, homes are in darkness, and businesses are once again grappling with uncertainty.
While the fire outbreak at the Akosombo substation may have triggered the current disruptions, a deeper, more complex story lies beneath the surface.
The Illusion of Excess Capacity
Official data from the Energy Commission reveals that Ghana’s installed power capacity stands at about 5,260 megawatts, comfortably above its peak demand of roughly 3,900 megawatts.
This means that, on paper, there is indeed excess capacity on standby should anything go south.
This apparent surplus, however, masks a critical reality that installed capacity does not equal available power. A significant portion of this capacity is only functional under specific operational conditions, particularly the availability of fuel.
The Akosombo Substation Trigger
According to the authorities, the current crisis was caused by a fire incident at the Akosombo power distribution point. This substation, we are told, provides 1000MW generated from the dam. Compared with the country’s installed capacity, if the 1000MW is taken off the grid, the impact should not be felt.
In simple terms, even with the loss of about 1,000 megawatts from the affected Akosombo substation, the system should still, in theory, have enough buffer to avoid widespread outages.
However, its impact on the grid is undeniable, removing a substantial chunk of supply and destabilising power.
Yet, it is emerging that the substation incident is merely the trigger, not the root cause. Ghana’s power system, already operating with underlying vulnerabilities, was pushed into crisis by the event, but not created by it.
The Gas Supply Constraint
The High Street Journal has gathered that gas supply is at the heart of the problem. A source has said that the Atuabo Gas Processing Plant, a critical source of fuel for several thermal plants, is currently undergoing maintenance, significantly reducing the volume of gas available for power generation.
This shortage has had a ripple effect across the sector. Ghana’s increasing reliance on gas-fired plants means that any disruption in gas supply immediately translates into reduced electricity generation.
In essence, the country’s ability to generate power is being constrained not by infrastructure alone, but by fuel availability.
Many Gas-Dependent IPPs Now Idle
Now, due to the shortage of gas supply, the result is that many Independent Power Producers (IPPs), which make up a significant share of Ghana’s installed capacity, are now out of operations.
The source indicates that IPPs that depend on gas are virtually out of service. For instance, the Asogli power plant is operating only partially, relying on its liquid fuel component while its gas-fired units remain offline.
Meanwhile, other major plants such as CENIT and Karpower, the source indicated, are not in operation at all due to the lack of gas supply.
In effect, all these power producers were removed from the national grid before the Akosombo substation fire incident.
From Surplus to Shortfall
The combined effect of the substation outage and the gas supply constraints has transformed Ghana’s energy position from one of apparent surplus to an actual deficit.
This means that prior to the fire situation, the country was already operating on the margins. What appears to be a comfortable margin of over 1,000 megawatts quickly evaporates when key plants are unable to operate.
The situation underscores how fragile the balance between supply and demand can be when critical dependencies are overlooked. The fire just exposed the fragile situation of the country’s energy production.
What Lies Ahead
The industry source suggests the situation could persist for up to two weeks if urgent measures are not implemented. This places pressure on authorities to find immediate solutions while also addressing the structural weaknesses exposed by the crisis.
The need for better coordination between fuel supply and power generation, as well as increased investment in resilient infrastructure, has never been clearer.
Ultimately, the ongoing outages are not simply the result of a fire incident. They are the product of a system where capacity figures create confidence, but operational realities tell a different story.
