Ghana’s cocoa sector is facing another production challenge, with the country’s cocoa regulator warning that output could fall by at least 16% in the 2026/27 season due to unfavourable weather, disease and long-standing problems affecting cocoa farms.
The expected decline comes after farmers in some of Ghana’s major cocoa-growing areas reported fewer cocoa pods on their farms, raising concerns about the size of the next harvest.
According to a Reuters report, the Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD) said the lower production outlook is linked to a combination of factors, including possible El Niño conditions, heavy rainfall recorded in May and June, and the natural cycle of cocoa trees.
Cocoa trees do not produce the same amount of cocoa every year. After a strong harvest, trees often experience a period of lower production as part of their normal growth cycle.
COCOBOD said one of the warning signs has been a decline in the number of young cocoa pods surviving to maturity, particularly in the Western and Western North regions, which together account for more than half of Ghana’s cocoa production.
However, the pressure on Ghana’s cocoa farms goes beyond weather conditions.
The regulator as reported by Reuters, said the two regions have also been affected by cocoa swollen shoot virus disease, ageing cocoa trees and the growing impact of illegal mining, locally known as galamsey.
Illegal mining has taken over some cocoa-growing lands, reducing the amount of farmland available for cocoa production and affecting communities that depend on the crop for their livelihoods.
The production concerns come at a time when the global cocoa market is also experiencing changes.
Cocoa prices, which climbed sharply over the past year due to supply concerns, have recently eased. Prices fell below $5,200 per tonne, their lowest level in nearly three weeks, after reaching an eight-month high of $6,455 per tonne on July 9.
The decline in prices reflects growing concerns among investors about whether consumers will continue buying chocolate products at higher prices. Major chocolate producers are being closely watched for signs that expensive cocoa is beginning to affect demand.
Swiss chocolate maker Lindt said it could introduce selective price reductions in the second half of 2026 to support sales volumes after its recent results raised questions about the strength of demand growth.
Investment bank Citigroup has also become more cautious about cocoa prices, moving to a neutral position after previously expecting further price increases. The bank said it wants more evidence of crop damage linked to El Niño and stronger demand before becoming more positive on the market.
On the supply side, not all producers are facing the same challenges. The International Cocoa Organization expects Indonesia’s cocoa production to rise to 220,000 tonnes in the 2025/26 season, up from 200,000 tonnes the previous year.
For Ghana, the combination of lower production and changing global prices presents a more difficult outlook. Higher cocoa prices could boost export earnings but a fall in production could reduce the benefits if the country has fewer beans available to sell internationally.
COCOBOD said it is taking steps to limit the impact of the expected decline, including rehabilitating farms affected by disease, increasing insecticide and fungicide spraying, and bringing back a nationwide free fertiliser programme for the 2026/27 crop year.
The challenge facing Ghana is part of a wider pressure across West Africa’s cocoa industry. Reuters reported that cocoa production forecasts for the region have been revised downward, with output in Côte d’Ivoire, the world’s largest cocoa producer, also expected to decline by more than 10% next season.
