The Public Utilities Regulatory Commission’s (PURC) decision to increase electricity tariffs by 3.49% from July 1, 2026, is facing scrutiny after a policy analyst questioned whether the regulator’s own data supports the latest adjustment.
Policy and Data Analyst, Alfred Appiah, has raised concerns that the key variables cited by the PURC in its 2026 Third Quarter Tariff Review appear inconsistent with the increase announced for electricity consumers.
In its tariff review decision, the PURC stated that electricity tariffs would rise by 3.49%, while water tariffs would increase by 0.85%. The Commission explained that the adjustment was based on quarterly reviews of key operational indicators, including exchange rate movements, inflation, fuel costs, and the electricity generation mix.
However, Alfred Appiah argues that the figures published by the regulator tell a different story.
Exchange Rate Movement Was Marginal
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According to the PURC’s own assumptions, the Ghana cedi depreciated only slightly against the US dollar between the second and third quarters of 2026.
The projected exchange rate moved from GHS11.1931 per US dollar in the second quarter to GHS11.2228 per US dollar in the third quarter, representing a depreciation of just 0.2%.
For many observers, such a marginal change raises questions about how much pressure it could realistically exert on electricity tariffs within a single quarter.
Inflation Actually Declined
The analyst also points to inflation data contained in the PURC’s report. The Commission applied an average inflation rate of 3.43% for the third quarter, down from 4.17% in the previous quarter. This represents a decline of approximately 17.7%.
Ordinarily, lower inflation suggests reduced pressure on operating costs, making it difficult for consumers to understand why tariffs would still rise significantly.
Fuel Costs Also Fell
Another factor attracting attention is the cost of natural gas, a key input in Ghana’s thermal power generation.
The PURC’s review shows that the Weighted Average Cost of Gas declined from US$8.0988 per MMBtu in the second quarter to US$7.9708 per MMBtu in the third quarter, a reduction of about 1.6%.
Since fuel costs are a major component of electricity generation expenses, the decline has intensified questions about the basis for the upward tariff adjustment.
Generation Mix Remained Unchanged
The Commission’s data further indicates that the electricity generation mix remained unchanged from the previous quarter, with hydro generation accounting for 20.9% and thermal generation accounting for 79.1%.
With no significant shift in the generation structure, the analyst argues that the traditional drivers of tariff increases appear largely absent from the Commission’s own assumptions.
Legacy Costs or Missing Variables?
The analyst is therefore asking whether there are additional factors not fully reflected in the headline indicators that influenced the final decision.
His concerns echo a broader debate that has emerged repeatedly in Ghana’s utility sector: whether tariff adjustments are increasingly being driven by legacy debts, revenue shortfalls and financial obligations within the energy sector rather than by current operational indicators alone.
“PURC’s own data and assumptions do not support this increase,” Alfred Appiah remarked.
He noted that “Exchange rate barely changed (0.2% depreciation compared to previous quarter), Inflation went down, Cost of gas also declined.”
“So, on what basis do these lead to a 3.49% increase in electricity tariffs? Did the PURC make a mistake, or is this another case of increasing tariffs to deal with legacy issues?, he further quizzed.
As public debate intensifies, attention is likely to turn to the PURC for further clarification on the specific cost drivers that ultimately resulted in the latest electricity tariff adjustment.
