Ghana recorded a historic current account surplus of US$3.4 billion in the first half of 2025, reflecting a major improvement in the country’s external position, according to the Bank of Ghana’s 125th Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) report.
The surplus marks a significant turnaround, suggesting strong export performance, moderated import demand, and favorable global market conditions for key commodities such as gold, oil, and cocoa. This development aligns with broader indicators of macroeconomic stability highlighted in the report.
Strong External Fundamentals
The surplus indicates that Ghana earned more foreign exchange from trade and investment inflows than it spent on imports and external obligations. This improvement is consistent with the observed appreciation of the Ghanaian cedi and the accumulation of international reserves.
The cedi appreciated markedly against major trading currencies in the year to July 25, 2025, up 40.7% against the US dollar, 31.2% against the British pound, and 24.2% against the euro. These gains helped reinforce disinflationary trends, with headline inflation falling from 18.4% in May to 13.7% in June, the lowest level since December 2021.
Reserve Accumulation
Gross international reserves stood at US$11.1 billion at the end of June 2025, providing 4.8 months of import cover. This strong reserve position enhances Ghana’s external buffer and supports confidence in the local currency.
The central bank’s ability to accumulate reserves and maintain exchange rate stability reflects improved balance of payments dynamics and prudent monetary policy over recent quarters.
Sustainability and Outlook
While the surplus offers substantial short-term benefits, including currency stability and lower inflation, it also raises questions about its sustainability. The current account balance may have been supported by temporary factors such as elevated commodity prices or deferred imports during prior periods of currency volatility.
Long-term external strength will depend on structural reforms that promote diversified exports, improved productivity, and reduced reliance on primary commodities.
Policy Implications
The surplus, combined with falling inflation and positive growth indicators, created conditions for the Bank of Ghana to lower the policy rate by 300 basis points to 25.0%. This signals a shift toward more accommodative monetary policy, aimed at supporting domestic demand and investment without compromising macroeconomic stability.
Ghana’s strong external sector performance distinguishes it within the region, offering a solid foundation for ongoing economic recovery and fiscal consolidation.
