Ghana’s ambition to refine lithium locally may come at a higher cost, potentially reducing the country’s overall benefit from its emerging lithium industry, according to a new report by the Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI).
Titled “Refining the Strategy: The Economics of Lithium Value Addition in Ghana,” the report cautions that plans to establish a domestic refinery should be driven by economic realities rather than aspirations.
Ghana is on the brink of becoming a lithium producer. Barari DV Ghana Ltd, a subsidiary of Atlantic Lithium, plans to begin producing lithium spodumene concentrate from its Ewoyaa mine within two years, pending parliamentary approval of its mining lease agreement. Meanwhile, half of Ewoyaa’s production is already committed for export. The government, civil society and broader public want a refinery built in Ghana to process the remaining lithium.
But NRGI’s analysis reveals that building a refinery in Ghana within the next few years would be economically risky and may cost the government at least USD 500 million in lost revenue over the life of the Ewoyaa lithium project.
The NRGI modeling compares the benefits of refining locally with simply exporting the lithium concentrate. The report suggests that Ghana would earn $2.7 billion in government revenue if it exports half of Ewoyaa’s spodumene concentrate—its projected output—to China. In contrast, refining the same volume locally would yield only $2.2 billion, representing a $500 million shortfall. This figure, NRGI notes, is equivalent to more than half of all mining revenue collected by the government in 2022.
The Ewoyaa project, spearheaded by Barari DV Ghana Ltd, a subsidiary of Atlantic Lithium, is expected to begin production within two years, pending parliamentary approval. Half of the planned production is already committed to U.S. firm Piedmont Lithium for export. Public and political pressure has grown for the remaining output to be refined domestically to create jobs and enhance value addition.
However, the NRGI report highlights that a local refinery is likely to be economically uncompetitive in the current global landscape. Chinese refineries dominate the lithium processing market with cheaper costs and excess capacity. As a result, a Ghana-based refinery would need to purchase feedstock at below-market rates just to remain viable—leading to reduced revenue for both the state and Barari. Additionally, the report estimates such a refinery would create no more than 200 direct jobs, with uncertain benefits for other sectors.
“The government would generate less revenue from its lithium by building a refinery—even if cathode manufacturing develops outside China and the refinery secures slightly better prices,” the report stresses.
Beyond the revenue gap, environmental and social risks associated with refining also weigh against immediate domestic processing.
As a more prudent alternative, the NRGI recommends a “mine-and-monitor” approach—ensuring Ewoyaa begins production as planned, while the government builds institutional capacity, monitors global trends in lithium refining, and lays the groundwork for future value addition opportunities. This includes developing strategies for the use of byproducts and encouraging transparent, citizen-led dialogue around future decisions.
The report ultimately urges caution, warning that proximity to mineral deposits does not guarantee value. Instead, sound economic analysis and clear-eyed policy choices will be key to ensuring that Ghana’s lithium boom leads to sustainable and equitable development.
