Artificial intelligence could deepen inequality in developing countries unless governments and development-finance institutions close gaps in digital infrastructure, skills and access to technology, according to a report marking the 50th anniversary of the OPEC Fund for International Development.
The report says AI presents developing economies with an opportunity to leapfrog traditional development paths, but its benefits could remain concentrated in countries and communities with better connectivity, computing capacity and human capital.
“AI and technological transformation” must become “accelerators of equity rather than amplifiers of inequality,” the report says, arguing that the outcome will depend less on technology itself than on decisions over access, governance, sustainability and investment.
The warning comes as AI investment accelerates globally. Private and corporate AI spending was estimated at about $250 billion in 2024, while AI-related investment overall has surged into the hundreds of billions of dollars annually, according to the report.
Developing economies face a different AI challenge
The report cites International Labour Organization research showing that about one in four jobs globally is potentially exposed to transformation by generative AI. The share rises to about one-third in high-income economies but falls to just over one-tenth in low-income countries.
That lower exposure, however, isn’t necessarily an advantage. The report says developing economies risk being left behind because they often lack the infrastructure and skills needed to adopt AI and use it to raise productivity.
The report argues that AI could improve productivity in agriculture through precision farming, reduce maintenance costs for infrastructure through predictive analytics and widen access to finance through AI-based credit scoring.
Such tools could be particularly useful for small and medium-sized businesses, including enterprises led by women and young people that have historically faced difficulties accessing formal financial systems.
AI could also help governments improve public services by supporting early disease detection, traffic management and targeted social-protection programs.
The World Economic Forum estimates that digital public services and government technology could cut efficiency-related government costs by about 30%, potentially unlocking as much as $5.8 trillion in global savings by 2034, according to the report.
Connectivity becomes an economic divide
The report identifies access to digital infrastructure as one of the biggest risks to inclusive AI adoption.
About 2.2 billion people remained offline in 2026, according to the publication, meaning large parts of the global population cannot fully participate in an increasingly digital economy. “Connectivity gaps translate directly into opportunity gaps,” the report says.
The challenge extends beyond internet access. Unequal access to computing power, incompatible digital standards and digital protectionism could prevent developing economies from benefiting from AI supply chains and digital platforms, according to the report.
It calls for greater international cooperation on digital governance, arguing that coordinated approaches could help spread the economic benefits of AI more widely.
AI also creates an energy challenge
The expansion of AI is increasing demand for electricity, creating another barrier for countries with weak energy infrastructure.
Data centers consumed about 415 terawatt-hours of electricity in 2024, equivalent to about 1.5% of global electricity consumption, according to the report. That demand is projected to more than double to about 945 TWh by 2030, slightly above Japan’s current electricity use.
AI-focused data centers are concentrated in a small number of regions, placing additional pressure on local electricity grids. The report therefore argues that digital expansion must be aligned with investment in renewable energy, efficient data infrastructure and climate-conscious technologies.
Jobs and skills
AI-driven automation could also reshape labor markets. The report estimates that AI, automation and the green transition could create about 170 million new jobs and displace 92 million existing roles by 2030, for a potential net gain of about 78 million jobs.
But that outcome depends on workers being able to acquire new skills, the report says. Digital literacy, data skills and adaptive learning should therefore become central components of development strategies.
The demographic stakes are particularly significant for developing countries. More than 60% of the population in low-income countries is under 25, according to the report. That youthful population could become a source of digital entrepreneurship if young people have the necessary skills and access to global markets, but could instead become a source of frustration and instability if those opportunities don’t materialize.
Development finance needs to change
The OPEC Fund report says multilateral development banks and other international financial institutions should treat digital transformation as a cross-cutting component of development rather than as a standalone sector.
AI should be incorporated into projects involving agriculture, energy, health, urban planning and financial inclusion, with digital infrastructure, data governance, interoperability and cybersecurity considered from the outset.
Financing models will also need to evolve. The report says blended finance, public-private partnerships and catalytic capital will be necessary to mobilize investment in digital infrastructure in developing markets, which face an annual infrastructure investment gap of more than $4 trillion.
The report also highlights a regulatory gap: while international momentum around responsible AI has grown, many developing countries lack the institutional capacity to implement frameworks based on transparency, accountability and human oversight. Development institutions can help build that regulatory and institutional capacity, it says.
The central message is that AI’s development impact won’t be determined by technology alone. Access to infrastructure, skills, energy and capital, combined with effective governance, will determine whether AI helps narrow economic divides or reinforces them.
“Technology alone does not determine our future,” the report says. “The choices we make about access, governance, sustainability, and solidarity will.”
