OPEC expects global oil demand to rise to 124.1 million barrels a day by 2050, with road transportation emerging as a significant source of additional consumption, underscoring the continued role of petroleum in the global energy system despite the shift toward cleaner technologies.
Dr. Ayed S. Al-Qahtani, director of OPEC’s Research Division, gave the projection at the first technical meeting of the OPEC-International Road Transport Union (IRU) Energy Dialogue in Vienna, where officials discussed global energy markets and policy developments with a focus on road transportation.
The road-transport sector is expected to add 5.7 million barrels a day to global oil demand by 2050, according to Al-Qahtani.
The projection is broadly consistent with OPEC’s latest long-term outlook, which sees global oil demand reaching about 124 million barrels a day by 2050.
The meeting, held at the OPEC Secretariat, marks a renewal of cooperation between the organizations dating back to 2006 and comes as governments and the transport industry navigate the competing pressures of energy security, affordability, emissions reduction and the transition to alternative fuels.
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Transport remains key demand driver
OPEC’s outlook continues to identify road transportation as one of the main contributors to additional oil consumption over the coming decades.
The organization’s previous outlook projected road transportation oil demand at 51.3 million barrels a day in 2050, up from 46 million barrels a day in 2024.
That increase is expected even as vehicle efficiency improves and electric mobility expands, reflecting rising mobility needs and increasing demand for transportation in developing economies.
The broader transportation sector, including road, aviation, rail and marine fuels, is expected to remain the largest source of incremental oil demand in OPEC’s long-term projections.
Energy policy in focus
The technical dialogue also examined developments in global energy markets and energy policy, according to OPEC.
The discussions come as policymakers face the challenge of balancing the expansion of lower-carbon energy with the need to maintain reliable and affordable energy supplies.
OPEC’s latest World Oil Outlook says global energy demand is projected to increase by 23% through 2050, while stressing the need for sustained investment across all energy sources and technologies.
OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais has said the oil industry alone will require about $17.7 trillion of investment between 2026 and 2050, or more than $700 billion annually, to meet projected long-term demand.
The organizations will continue their discussions at the first high-level OPEC-IRU Energy Dialogue, scheduled for December in Vienna.
The meeting is expected to build on the technical discussions and provide a forum for policymakers and road-transport stakeholders to examine longer-term energy-market trends and the implications for the sector.
