Brent crude held near $110 a barrel on Tuesday, October 20, as escalating conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe raised concerns about global oil supplies, overshadowing signs that Persian Gulf shipments were recovering.
Brent stood at $109.56 a barrel, up 0.01% on the day, according to CFD data tracking the benchmark. The price has gained 9.19% over the past month and is 78.68% higher than a year earlier.
The market has been supported by attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, renewed strikes involving Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen, and attacks on energy infrastructure in Russia and Ukraine.
Reuters reported that Brent futures had approached $110 a barrel as traders assessed the potential for further disruptions to oil supplies. The futures market is a separate instrument from the CFD price cited above.
Strait of Hormuz remains a major concern
Iran has continued to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for crude oil and petroleum products moving from the Persian Gulf to international markets.
Maritime authorities have reported attacks on commercial ships in the waterway, while a tanker was reported to have caught fire and exploded after striking a naval mine in the southern part of the strait over the weekend, according to Iranian media cited by Reuters.
The continuing incidents have raised concerns about the safety and cost of moving oil through the region. Even when crude is available for export, attacks, insurance costs and delays can make deliveries more difficult and expensive.
That risk is helping support prices despite signs of improving supply.
Saudi Arabia and Russia-Ukraine conflict add to risks
The conflict involving Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthi militants has added another source of uncertainty for energy markets.
Reuters reported renewed Houthi attacks on Saudi energy, airport and military facilities. The developments have raised concerns about possible threats to infrastructure and oil shipments in the region.
Meanwhile, Russia and Ukraine have continued attacks on energy infrastructure. Ukrainian strikes sparked fires at an oil export terminal and a storage depot in St Petersburg on Sunday, while Russia has renewed attacks on Ukraine’s energy network.
These developments leave the market exposed to disruptions on several fronts, making it harder for recovering exports from the Persian Gulf to fully reassure traders.
Recovering Gulf supplies offer some relief
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Persian Gulf oil shipments had recovered to about 80% of their pre-war levels, although deliveries of refined petroleum products remained limited.
The recovery suggests that some crude supplies are returning despite the conflict. However, the volume moving through the region does not tell the full story, as shipping disruptions and higher transport costs can still constrain deliveries to buyers.
The Trump administration is also allowing the sale of certain sanctioned oil tankers, potentially enabling more vessels to transport crude legally. The global fleet of so-called “dark fleet” tankers, which are often used to move sanctioned oil outside normal shipping channels, is estimated at around 1,600 vessels.
The effect of the policy on actual oil deliveries remains uncertain. While making more tankers available could improve transport capacity, it would not by itself remove the security risks facing vessels operating in the Strait of Hormuz.
For now, Brent’s position near $110 reflects a market balancing the prospect of recovering oil flows against continued threats to shipping and energy infrastructure. Until those risks ease, supply concerns are likely to remain an important influence on prices.
