Oil prices slipped Monday, reversing some of last week’s gains, as expectations of another OPEC+ production hike in November fueled worries about oversupply.
Brent crude dropped below $70 a barrel after climbing 5.2% last week, while West Texas Intermediate traded near $65. The alliance led by Saudi Arabia is considering boosting output in November by at least the same 137,000 barrels a day planned for October, according to people familiar with the talks.
OPEC+ has shifted toward regaining market share rather than its traditional role of price management, steadily restoring idle production. Still, demand from China has helped cushion prices.
The expected November increase is smaller than earlier monthly hikes, and analysts note that actual output growth will likely fall short, as many producers aside from Saudi Arabia are already near capacity.
“Future OPEC+ supply increases will be materially lower than headline numbers,” RBC Capital Markets analysts including Helima Croft wrote in a note.
The group will finalize its November policy on Oct. 5.
Looking ahead, the International Energy Agency sees a record surplus emerging by 2026 as OPEC+ revives production and rival output rises. Goldman Sachs expects Brent to slip into the mid-$50s next year, even with China continuing to stockpile crude.
