South Korea’s exports likely rose at their fastest pace in 13 months in September, buoyed by strong technology demand and favorable calendar effects, though trade frictions with the United States continue to cloud the outlook, a Reuters poll showed.
Outbound shipments are projected to have climbed 7.2% from a year earlier, according to the median forecast of 19 economists, following a revised 1.2% increase in August, the weakest in three months. That would mark the strongest growth since August 2024.
September’s performance was supported by robust semiconductor exports and more working days compared with last year’s Chuseok holiday period. The month had 24 working days versus 20 in 2024.
“Export growth may accelerate on the back of record semiconductor shipments, alongside front-loaded shipments before the Chuseok holiday,” economists at Standard Chartered said in a note. “However, autos and machinery face ongoing tariff headwinds from the U.S.”
Preliminary customs data showed exports in the first 20 days of September rose 13.5%, led by a 27% surge in semiconductor shipments. However, on a daily average basis, exports were down 10.6%. Shipments to the United States and China gained 6.1% and 1.6% respectively, while sales to the European Union and Southeast Asia expanded at a faster pace.
“Exports to both the U.S. and China are being pressured by U.S. tariffs,” said Lee Jeong-hoon, economist at Eugene Investment Securities.
Imports are expected to have risen 5.6% in September, rebounding from a 4.1% fall in August. The trade balance is forecast to show a surplus of $7.81 billion, wider than the $6.51 billion surplus the previous month.
Despite solid near-term demand, economists warned that prolonged trade talks with Washington remain a risk, as Seoul has yet to sign a written agreement on a preliminary deal reached with U.S. President Donald Trump in July.
