A potential public listing of Aliko Dangote’s $20 billion oil refinery could dramatically reshape Nigeria’s capital market, with analysts predicting a sharp jump in stock market value. Bismarck Rewane, a leading Nigerian economist has estimated that listing the refinery on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) could lift total market capitalisation beyond $140 billion.
Mr. Rewane, Chief Executive Officer of Financial Derivatives Company and Chairman of FCMB Asset Management Limited, said the refinery alone could push the NGX’s valuation above N200 trillion. At present, Nigeria’s stock market is valued at approximately N105 trillion, or $74 billion.
Delivering remarks at a business summit in Lagos over the weekend, he described the anticipated listing as transformational, arguing that the size of the refinery would significantly expand market depth and liquidity while enhancing the NGX’s profile among major emerging-market exchanges.
The forecast comes as Dangote Petroleum Refinery advances preparations for what is expected to be one of Africa’s largest initial public offerings. The refinery’s Chief Executive Officer, David Bird, who assumed office in August 2025, said advisory teams are intensifying work ahead of the listing, with peak activity expected around April.
Situated near Lagos, the 650,000-barrel-per-day refinery has already had a major impact on Nigeria’s fuel supply landscape. The listing is expected to begin with a placement to institutional investors before opening up to retail participation, allowing individual Nigerians to acquire shares. Dangote plans to sell between 5 and 10 per cent of the company, while maintaining a controlling interest of about 65 to 70 per cent.
To attract a broad investor base, the transaction is being structured to accommodate both local and foreign investors. Shares are expected to be purchased in naira, while dividends would be paid in US dollars, supported by projected annual export earnings of roughly $6.4 billion from petrochemical products such as polypropylene and fertiliser.
