Africa’s economic growth could slow in 2026 as the crisis in the Middle East pushes up energy costs and disrupts trade flows, according to a report released this week.
The study, by the African Development Bank Group and other multilateral institutions, estimates the shock could shave about 0.2 percentage points off the continent’s growth.
The impact is expected to come mainly through higher oil prices and supply disruptions, reflecting Africa’s dependence on fuel imports from the region. Key shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz remain a concern for global energy markets.
Rising fuel costs are already feeding into broader price pressures, with food and fertilizer prices also affected, while several African currencies have weakened amid tighter external conditions.
AfDB Chief Economist Kevin Urama said governments should avoid policy responses that could strain public finances, warning against broad subsidies and unplanned spending.
The report instead recommends targeted support measures, prudent management of oil revenues and steps to contain inflation.
It also calls for faster progress on regional trade and energy diversification, as African economies remain exposed to external shocks.
Africa imports roughly 80% of its oil from the Middle East, the report said, underscoring the region’s vulnerability to disruptions in global energy markets.
