Ghana’s economic and financial risks are rated SEVERE, driven by fiscal transition pressures, commodity dependence, and banking sector vulnerabilities, according to a Q1 2026 risk assessment by Sompa & Partners.
The report assigns Economic & Financial Risk a score of 60/125, citing heightened exposure to macroeconomic shocks despite recent improvements in headline indicators such as inflation, currency performance, and reserve accumulation.
It describes Ghana’s current macroeconomic position as “Manna Stability,” noting that recent gains are supported primarily by elevated gold prices and gold accumulation rather than broad-based structural diversification.
Inflation stood at 3.2% in March 2026, while the cedi appreciated by 40.7% against the US dollar in 2025. Gross international reserves were estimated at between $13.8 billion and $14.5 billion. GDP crossed $100 billion for the first time. The Bank of Ghana reduced its policy rate to 14% in March 2026.
The report, however, warns that these indicators mask underlying vulnerabilities, particularly ahead of the IMF programme exit scheduled for August 2026.
It identifies the loss of the IMF programme as a key fiscal risk, noting that Ghana will lose an external policy anchor that has supported discipline in recent years. The report cautions that without fully operational domestic fiscal safeguards, the risk of policy slippage and currency pressure remains elevated.
Cocoa sector debt is highlighted as a major structural constraint. COCOBOD debt stands at GH¢32.5 billion, with rollover losses exceeding $840 million. The report says weak cocoa prices and financing pressures are creating liquidity strain across the agricultural value chain.
In the financial sector, the report points to recapitalisation pressures in parts of the banking system, citing legacy balance sheet weaknesses following the Domestic Debt Exchange Programme. It adds that risk-based supervision by the central bank may increase regulatory pressure on financial institutions.
External risks are also flagged, including the potential for oil price shocks linked to Middle East tensions and possible disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which could reverse recent disinflation trends and force interest rate adjustments.
The report also raises concerns over energy sector liabilities estimated at GH¢22 billion, as well as government domestic borrowing requirements that could crowd out private sector credit in the first half of 2026.
According to the assessment, Ghana’s macroeconomic stability remains highly sensitive to commodity cycles, fiscal adjustment risks, and external shocks, particularly in the post-IMF transition period.
The report forms part of a broader national risk framework assessing seven dimensions of Ghana’s business environment in 2026.
