Just when Ghanaians were beginning to enjoy a period of cooling inflation, it is appearing that the streak may soon be coming to an end after over year break.
Policy think tank IC Research is predicting a slight rise in inflation for March 2026, signaling that the country’s long run of declining prices could be nearing a turning point.
According to its latest report, headline inflation is expected to edge up to about 3.9%, driven by a mix of global shocks and local pressures that are quietly building beneath the surface.
What’s Driving the Expected Rise?
At the center of the concern is the rising cost of energy. Global oil prices have surged, with Brent crude climbing above $83 per barrel due to geopolitical tensions. This is expected to push up fuel prices locally, which then feeds into higher transport fares and the general cost of living.
Even if transport fares don’t jump sharply right away, IC Research maintains that the ripple effects are hard to avoid. When fuel goes up, businesses, from traders to manufacturers, face higher operating costs, and those costs often end up being passed on to consumers.
It further adds that the delayed adjustment in utility tariffs is another factor. Once these take effect, households and businesses could see higher electricity and water bills, adding further pressure to already tight budgets.
“We foresee a modest uptick in inflation for March 2026 as supply-chain disruptions and other cost pressures re-emerge. Headline inflation will likely tick higher by 60bps to 3.9% y/y in March 2026, with the m/m rate steady at 0.8%,” IC Research noted.
It added, “We expect the delayed utility tariff pass-through and the geopolitics-induced Brent price surge above USD 83.0pb (as of market open on 05 March 2026) to lift domestic petroleum prices and transport costs, albeit with transport remaining in modest deflation.”
Food Prices Could Also Turn
On the food front, IC Research warns that recent price declines, especially in vegetables, may soon reverse.
The think tank offers two key reasons. It mentions that the planting season, which typically tightens supply in the short term, and cross-border disruptions in tomato supply, a staple in many Ghanaian meals
Together, these could push food prices higher again, ending the recent relief consumers have enjoyed.
“This will heighten non-food and overall price pressures. We also believe the planting season effects and cross-border tomato disruptions may reverse the vegetables price deflation, and introduce near-term upside risk to headline inflation,” IC Research noted.
Why This Matters
For many households, even a small increase in inflation can be felt immediately, whether in transport fares, market prices, or utility bills.
Also, for businesses, it means rising costs and tighter margins, especially for small enterprises already dealing with high borrowing costs.
Although the expected increase is modest, IC Research’s outlook analysis reveals that the fight against inflation is not fully over.
Should the prediction materialize, March could mark the beginning of a new phase, one where prices stabilize, but with occasional upward pressure driven by both global and local factors.
