Given that one factor that can throw Ghana’s 2026 budget off track is global shocks, Deloitte is proposing that the government adopts a clear oil-price hedging strategy.
Deloitte says a major threat to revenue projections to the budget is the very volatile global crude oil prices, hence there is a need to create a shield that will protect Ghana’s budget from the heavy shocks caused by unstable global crude prices.
The advisory firm notes that already the recent swings in the international oil market, driven by geopolitical tensions and Ghana’s own declining production, have reduced expected revenues in 2025.
The threat, it says, still exists, posing a real danger to the country’s short- to medium-term budget performance.
In Deloitte’s 2026 Post-Budget Analysis, Ghana’s reliance on oil receipts makes the economy highly vulnerable to price fluctuations. This means that when prices fall, the government earns far less than planned; when they rise, consumers feel the pain at the pumps.
Hedging, Deloitte explains, could provide a cushion against these unpredictable swings. Experts explain in simple terms that hedging is like taking insurance on the price of oil. This means that the government locks in an agreed-upon price with a financial partner so that, even if market prices suddenly drop, the country still earns a guaranteed minimum.
Such kind of arrangement protects budgeted revenue and brings stability to planning. If prices rise above the agreed level, Ghana may not earn the full upside, but Deloitte argues that stability and predictability are more valuable than gambling on the highs.
“Volatile global oil and gas prices resulting from recent geopolitical tensions, together with some local factors including reduced production, have negatively impacted oil and gas revenue receipts to the Government. This phenomenon presents a risk in the short and medium term to Ghana’s overall budget performance,” Deloitte remarked in its analysis.
The firm notes that with production at the Jubilee, TEN, and Sankofa fields declining and global prices becoming increasingly erratic, Ghana’s oil revenue outlook has become too uncertain to leave unprotected.
In addition to the hedging, Deloitte recommends that the government offer targeted incentives to attract more private investment into the oil and gas sector and boost production. However, the firm stresses that diversification is equally important.
Strengthening non-oil sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, and services, it believes, would reduce Ghana’s dependence on oil altogether.
Deloitte noted, “Government should consider deploying incentives (tax or otherwise) to boost production and private sector investment in the oil and gas sector. Alternatively, the Government can explore hedging strategies to mitigate the impact of volatile international oil prices and ultimately consider accelerating the development of non-oil sectors to augment the revenue contribution from the oil sector.”
The advisory firm is convinced that adopting a hedging policy, in addition to other complementary measures, is needed to guard the projections in the 2026 budget and protect the economy from external shocks.
These are practical tools, they believe can stabilise the economy, prevent sudden revenue gaps, and give the government room to plan confidently, even when global oil prices are unpredictable.
