Ghana’s macroeconomic story in the 2025 fiscal year, according to Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson, was nothing short of a comeback or turnaround.
The Minister says the country has moved from an economy plagued with financial stress and a shaky macroeconomy in prior years to a quickly recovering and stable economy in 2025.
Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson disclosed this in a performance update released in Accra. This turnaround, he says, was anchored on fiscal discipline, structural reforms, and tighter monetary management.
But while the numbers are striking, the bigger question now confronting policymakers, investors, and households is whether the gains can endure or it will be a nine-day wonder.
From Deficits to Surpluses
According to the data shared by the Minister, at the end of 2024, the economy faced significant strain. He enumerated that 2024 ended with;
Primary balance deficit of 3.0% of GDP
91-day Treasury bill rate at 27.7%
Inflation at 23.8%
Cedi depreciation of 19.2% against the US dollar
However, the story changed for the better by the end of 2025. The fiscal picture had shifted sharply.
He recounted that the overall fiscal deficit on a commitment basis narrowed to 1.0% of GDP — outperforming the 2.8% target. The primary balance improved dramatically to a 2.6% surplus, exceeding projections.
On a cash basis, the primary balance also recorded a surplus of 0.5% of GDP. For the government, these figures signal restored fiscal credibility.
A Rare Debt Reduction
The country also witnessed a significant and dramatic drop in public debt. Ghana’s total public debt fell by GH¢82.1 billion, from GH¢726.7 billion (61.8% of GDP) in December 2024 to GH¢641.0 billion (45.3% of GDP) in December 2025.
In nominal terms and as a share of GDP, it marks one of the sharpest debt reductions in recent history.
The improvement was supported by stronger fiscal balances and debt management strategies, but also reflects the effects of restructuring and exchange rate movements.
Inflation and Interest Rates Collapse
Inflation declined for 13 consecutive months, dropping from 23.8% in 2024 to 5.4% by the end of 2025 and further to 3.8% by January 2026. This represents a fall of nearly 20 percentage points.
Interest rates also followed suit. The 91-day Treasury bill rate plunged from 27.7% at end-2024 to 11% by December 2025 and currently stands at 6.5%.
Commercial bank lending rates fell from 30.25% in 2024 to 20.45% in 2025.
Lower rates reduce government borrowing costs and potentially create room for private sector expansion, a critical ingredient for job creation.
Growth Rebounds
Real GDP growth reached a provisional 6.1% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, driven largely by services and agriculture. Non-oil growth was even stronger at 7.5%.
Credit to the private sector expanded by GH¢17.1 billion in 2025, suggesting improved liquidity and confidence in domestic economic activity.
Meanwhile, the cedi appreciated by 40.7% against the US dollar in 2025, a sharp reversal from its 19.2% depreciation the previous year.
Externally, the current account recorded a surplus of US$9.1 billion, while gross international reserves rose to US$13.8 billion, covering 5.7 months of imports.
Broad-Based Recovery – But Can It Last?
As the Finance Minister indicated, the transformation is broad-based. The data point to a broad macroeconomic stabilization. Fiscal balances improved. Debt declined. Inflation cooled. Interest rates fell. The currency strengthened.
However, sustainability is the real test. Several critical questions remain:
Can fiscal discipline be maintained amid political and social spending pressures?
Will revenue mobilization continue to outperform targets?
Can inflation remain anchored if global commodity prices shift?
Will the cedi sustain its strength if external conditions tighten?
Can lower interest rates translate into meaningful industrial expansion and job creation?
History shows that stabilization phases are often easier than consolidation phases. Maintaining a low inflation environment, preserving currency stability, and avoiding fiscal slippages require consistent policy discipline.
The Bottomline
Already, the gains are beginning to show through lower inflation and moderating borrowing costs for households. For businesses, cheaper credit and exchange rate stability improve planning certainty.
However, as analysts maintain, sustained growth will depend on structural transformation, productivity gains, export diversification, and private sector expansion, not just macroeconomic correction.
The challenge for 2026 is whether Ghana can move from stabilization to durable economic transformation, ensuring that last year’s sterling gains become a lasting trajectory rather than a temporary rebound.
