The government slightly surpassed its domestic borrowing target in the third quarter of 2025, raising GH₵74.8 billion through Treasury bills against a planned ₵74.5 billion, according to data from the Bank of Ghana’s auction summaries for July to September.
While the oversubscription or the overborrowing may appear modest, which is just a little over GH₵270 million, it reflects both the government’s growing dependence on the short-term debt market and the resilience of local investors despite declining yields.
T-Bills – The Only Option Holding the Fort
Since the Domestic Debt Exchange Programme (DDEP) in 2023, Ghana’s domestic bond market has remained largely inactive, with most institutional investors showing limited appetite for medium- to long-term government securities.
Moreover, the country’s default on its external debt servicing obligations led to its exit from the international capital market. This culminated in the debt restructuring exercise. With both the international capital market and the domestic bonds market off the table, the short-term bill, widely known as Treasury bills (T-bills), has become the last resort.
The bills with maturities of 91, 182, and 364 days are now the government’s primary source of funding for budgetary needs and debt servicing.
The performance signals how much pressure the government has placed on the short-term market, meaning that the entire fiscal financing burden has shifted onto Treasury bills, which were never meant to carry it alone.
The Q3 Performance
A breakdown of the Q3 results by The High Street Journal shows a mixed performance:
July recorded the strongest auction results, with accepted bids totaling GH₵33.3 billion, far above the GH₵24 billion target.
August, however, saw a dip as investor participation softened, with accepted bids of GH₵23.98 billion falling short of the GH₵29.84 billion target.
September followed with GH₵17.51 billion accepted versus a ₵20.67 billion target, reflecting continued strain from competing money market instruments and lower yields.
Despite these monthly fluctuations, the overall quarterly figure closed slightly above the government’s planned target. This was helped by the government’s decision to accept all valid bids during some auctions in July to shore up liquidity ahead of maturing obligations.
Why the Slight Overshoot?
The slight excess of the target came at a time when the government was racing to meet urgent financing needs, from public sector wage payments to energy sector arrears, amid weaker-than-expected tax revenue inflows.
By accepting all bids during certain auctions, the government effectively signaled its heightened demand for cash, even at the risk of locking in higher interest payments.
What Lies Ahead for Q4
Heading into the final quarter of 2025, the outlook for the domestic debt market remains mixed.
Fiscal needs are expected to remain high as the government prepares to settle maturing bills and meet year-end obligations. Yet, investor appetite may weaken further if interest on the bills, which hover around 10% to 13% continue to fall below competing rates in the interbank market.
This means the government will have to strike a careful balance between managing costs and maintaining investor confidence.
For now, Ghana’s modest Q3 overperformance on the short-term market shows that the domestic market, though strained, continues to prop up the government’s finances at a time when external and other support remains limited.
