Government has expressed strong confidence that Ghana’s inflation will remain firmly within its end-year target range, insisting that even a worsening conflict in the Middle East is unlikely to derail the country’s hard-won price stability.
The assurance comes at a time when global markets are closely watching the impact of the geopolitical tensions on oil prices and supply chains. As has been recorded globally, the developments have fed into higher transport costs, fuel prices and ultimately the prices consumers pay for goods and services.
Speaking during PwC Ghana’s review of the 2026 Mid-Year Budget, Technical Advisor to the Minister for Finance and Economist, Dr. Theo Acheampong, said the government has thoroughly assessed the potential risks from the Middle East conflict and remains convinced that inflation will finish the year within the Bank of Ghana’s target band.
“You could see the rapid decline in inflation over the last 18 months,” Dr. Acheampong noted, admitting that “In the last few months, of course, things are beginning to pick up a little bit as a result of the ongoing war in the Middle East. But importantly, we’re still below the band that we had set for ourselves.”
He explained that Ghana’s inflation target band stands at 8%, plus or minus 2 percentage points, meaning the authorities expect inflation to end the year between 6% and 10%.
“We have no cause to believe that inflation, even if conflict escalates further in the Middle East, would end the year going above the band. We’ve done quite a lot of work around that,” he emphasized.
For businesses and households, this confidence of lower-level inflation offers reassurance that policymakers do not expect the recent rise in international crude oil prices to undo the significant progress made in taming inflation.
Over the past 18 months, Ghana has witnessed one of the fastest disinflation episodes in recent history, with inflation falling sharply from elevated levels as exchange rate stability, tighter monetary policy and improving fiscal discipline combined to ease price pressures.
Although inflation has edged up slightly in recent months, authorities believe the increase reflects temporary external shocks rather than a reversal of the broader downward trend.
Dr. Acheampong acknowledged that the conflict in the Middle East has already begun exerting some upward pressure on prices, mainly through energy markets.
A prolonged escalation could increase shipping costs, disrupt global supply chains and push crude oil prices even higher, with imported inflation filtering into domestic prices.
However, he maintained that the government’s analysis suggests these pressures are unlikely to be severe enough to push inflation outside the official target range before the end of 2026.
The government’s confidence broadly aligns with the outlook presented by global ratings agency Fitch Solutions, which also expects Ghana to maintain relatively low inflation in the near term.
However, Fitch believes the picture could become more challenging in early 2027. According to the agency, while inflation is expected to remain subdued through the remainder of 2026, base effects, exchange-rate dynamics and evolving external conditions could cause inflation to move above the upper limit of the target band during the early months of next year before moderating again.
The contrast highlights a minor difference in outlook rather than a disagreement over the current trajectory: both expect inflation to remain low by recent historical standards, but Fitch anticipates that maintaining it within the formal target band could become more difficult in early 2027.
For now, government officials remain convinced that the economy is resilient enough to withstand external shocks, arguing that Ghana’s improving macroeconomic fundamentals provide a stronger buffer against global volatility than in previous years.
