Ghana’s once-promising upstream petroleum sector is now on the edge of collapse, according to the Executive Director of the Center for Environmental Management and Sustainable Energy (CEMSE), Benjamin Nsiah.
This warning of a looming crisis comes as the country’s crude oil output continues its steep decline, sending shockwaves through national revenue streams and threatening the stability of key state institutions like the Ghana National Petroleum Corporation (GNPC).
Speaking on the worrying trend, Benjamin Nsiah revealed that Ghana’s oil production, which peaked at about 71 million barrels in 2019, has now fallen drastically to 48 million barrels in 2024. He adds that the first half of 2025 shows an even bleaker picture.
Such a slump, he noted, has direct consequences for national development. Oil revenues are a critical lifeline for budget financing, GNPC operations, and sovereign wealth funds such as the Ghana Infrastructure Investment Fund (GIIF), the Stabilisation Fund, and the Heritage Fund.
With revenues already halved in 2025, Benjamin Nsiah fears Ghana could soon lose its capacity to sustain key infrastructure and energy-related projects.
“I think that we need to really look at the space because our oil sector, especially the upstream, is collapsing, and if appropriate measures or interventions are not applied within the shortest possible time, we won’t even have upstream again,” the Executive Director of CEMSE feared.
He narrated, “An upstream that was doing about 71 million barrels in 2019 is now doing 48 in 2024, and even in the first half of 2025, it is doing about 18.5 million barrels. What it means is that maybe by the close of 2025, if there is no upward adjustment in the number of liftings for the second half of 2025 means that we are likely going to do about 37 million barrels a year, and that’s about a 10% shortfall compared to 2024.
The decline, experts say, is tied to aging fields, weak investment inflows, and policy uncertainty that has discouraged exploration and production.
With the Jubilee, TEN, and Sankofa fields all showing signs of maturity, Ghana’s petroleum story, once hailed as Africa’s next oil success, risks becoming a cautionary tale of missed opportunities and declining output.
For Benjamin Nsiah, if the government fails to act now, the country’s oil fields could run dry faster than our policies can respond, leaving the economy exposed and dependent on debt once again.
He adds that, “it threatens our ability to mobilise revenue for various projects that we have earmarked for either GNPC, for GIIF, or for some of the petroleum fund revenues, the stabilisation fund, and heritage funds. It is a cause for worry.”
At a time when Ghana is struggling to balance its budget and shore up the cedi, the collapse of the upstream petroleum sector could be a devastating blow to fiscal stability.
