Ghana’s sliding-scale gold royalty is delivering a windfall as prices soar, but the Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI) has warned that the regime could hurt mines and government revenue if prices reverse. The Ghana Chamber of Mines says the aim should be a fair return for the state without choking off investment.
Both sides spoke at a civil society dialogue in Accra on 3 November, organised by the Chamber in partnership with NRGI.
Record exports, a price-linked royalty
NRGI Country Manager Patrick Stephenson said gold export earnings reached US$20.9 billion in 2025, roughly double the US$10.3 billion of 2024. He credited geopolitical developments that “have pushed the price of gold through the roof”. Royalty collections hit a record GH¢5.43 billion, nearly five times the 2020 level.
Government’s take is now tied to the gold price. The royalty is 5% when gold is below US$1,500 an ounce and climbs in steps to a 12% cap above US$4,500. Gold and lithium are the only minerals covered, while others still pay the traditional 5%.
“If you’re making policy and the target is prices, and those are not a factor of decisions that the government has made, you have to be very careful because the pendulum could swing the other way,” Mr Stephenson said. He asked what government must consider “so you don’t shoot yourself in the foot”.
Mines may struggle
Mr Stephenson said the scale will hit mines differently, depending on their costs. NRGI ran it against publicly disclosed mine data and found that unless prices sit north of about US$5,000 an ounce, the majority of mines may struggle. He said the scale needs rethinking so that it works in both directions, since companies already have costs that cannot easily be cut if prices fall.
He added that Ghana is not alone. More countries are indexing royalties to mineral prices, and some have had to reverse or recalibrate their regimes.
A stronger cedi shrinks the gain
Mr Stephenson also warned that currency stability cuts both ways. Royalty receipts rose 73% in dollar terms, from US$288 million in 2024 to US$499 million in 2025. In cedis, the rise was only 11%, from GH¢4.90 billion to GH¢5.43 billion, because the average exchange rate moved from about GH¢17 to GH¢10.9 per dollar.
Higher royalties, he said, do not automatically mean more money for government spending. Budgets built on cedi receipts are exposed to the gold price, volumes and the exchange rate at once.
A US$1bn sale and a tax gap
NRGI also flagged a gap in asset transfers. Its presentation cited Newmont’s sale of the Akyem mine to Zijin Mining, valued at US$1 billion and closed in April 2025. Under current law, Mr Stephenson said, capital gains tax of about US$220 million should have been collected, but only about US$174 million is reported as paid, leaving an estimated US$46 million unaccounted for.
NRGI could not establish whether the balance was paid, or to whom, after being sent between different state institutions. No public government statement reconciles the assessment, the payment and any balance. NRGI stressed that the gap is an estimate, and said five or six transferred assets are under review.
Small-scale mining
Mr Stephenson said small-scale miners out-produced large-scale mines in the first half of 2026 for the first time. NRGI’s assessment found that fewer than 10% of small-scale operators pay PAYE and corporate income tax, and that royalty is rarely paid. He said this has implications for policy across the value chain.
Chamber: “The mining tripod”
Chamber of Mines Chief Operating Officer Ahmed Dasana Nantogmah argued the debate must first settle what “value” means. It is not only what reaches the state, he said, but also local content, local spend and community benefits.
He described government, investors and communities as a tripod. “Squeezing one leg weakens the whole,” he said.
Mr Nantogmah said the state must also use mining revenue responsibly. If government keeps paying someone’s rent while they buy cars, he said, the rent never goes down, but if the rent is invested, it eventually pays off.
