Ghana’s economy is expected to grow by 5.4% year-on-year in 2025, surpassing the government’s projection of 4%, according to Jibran Qureishi, Head of Africa Research at Standard Bank Group. Speaking during the Stanbic Economic Series webinar, titled “The Economy Under a New Era,” Mr. Qureishi shared insights into the factors fueling this optimistic outlook.
He noted that Ghana’s GDP growth has shown resilience, with growth reaching 5.8% year-on-year in 2024, up from 2.9% in 2023. “This is the fastest growth the economy has seen since 2021, and we expect this momentum to continue, with projected growth of 5.4% in 2025 and 5.7% in 2026,” Mr. Qureishi stated. He attributed much of this growth to the mining sector, particularly gold, which continues to be a key driver.
“The mining sector has seen a strong resurgence, with increased activity across the country, especially in gold. The revival of underperforming mines like Obuasi and the anticipated launch of a major lithium facility in 2026/2027 will further boost growth,” he explained.
However, challenges remain in non-mineral sectors. Mr. Qureishi pointed out that industries like manufacturing and real estate are still facing difficulties, while agricultural productivity was impacted by the dry spell in Northern Ghana last year, which constrained growth in that sector.
Despite these challenges, Mr. Qureishi expressed optimism about Ghana’s economic path. He emphasized that addressing issues such as energy sector arrears and fiscal policy imbalances will be crucial for sustaining growth. “The revival of key mining operations and potential for higher-than-expected growth in 2026 underscores the economy’s resilience,” he said, while also cautioning that structural reforms are necessary.
On currency matters, Mr. Qureishi projected a depreciation of the Ghanaian cedi, with the exchange rate potentially reaching GHS 16.4 to US$1. He highlighted concerns over foreign exchange (FX) flows, noting that major sources of FX, like mining and cocoa revenues, are directed to the Bank of Ghana instead of the interbank market, adding pressure on the central bank to manage FX flows and clear dollar backlogs.
Despite these concerns, Mr. Qureishi maintained a positive outlook for Ghana, emphasizing the importance of macroeconomic stability in driving sustainable growth.
