The African Development Bank (AfDB) is seeing a brighter economic outlook for Ghana in 2025, which outpaces the government’s own projections.
The AfDB is projecting a stronger-than-expected economic growth, estimating a GDP growth rate of 4.5% in 2025. This compares to the government’s own forecast of 4.0%.
This signifies that AfBD expects Ghana’s economy to expand at a rate of 0.5 percentage points higher than what the government anticipates.
This forecast on Ghana’s economy was captured in the Bank’s African Economic Outlook report, unveiled during its Annual Meetings in Abidjan.
According to the AfDB, Ghana’s growth momentum will be fueled by a revitalized mining sector, tighter fiscal controls through ongoing consolidation, and the impact of elevated interest rates.
The Bank further projects the growth momentum to continue in 2026, projecting a further rise to 4.8%.
Meanwhile, Ghana in its 2025 Budget Statement and Economic Policy outlined a more cautious outlook in the 2025 Budget, pegging overall GDP growth at 4.0%, with non-oil GDP projected to reach at least 4.8%.
But the World Bank is more cautious, forecasting 3.9% growth in 2025 and a gradual rise to 4.6% in 2026.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also aligns with Ghana’s internal estimates, forecasting 4.0% GDP growth for 2025 and an uptick to 4.8% in 2026, as detailed in its Regional Economic Outlook during the Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C.
Despite differing growth outlooks, institutions share concern over external risks. The World Bank cautioned that climate variability, particularly affecting cocoa production in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, could weaken the recovery trajectory. Given Ghana’s dependence on cocoa exports, poor harvests or price volatility could pose a threat to the optimistic forecasts.
