Ghana’s economic growth is projected to decelerate to 4.5% in 2025 before picking up slightly to 4.8% in 2026, according to a recent macroeconomic outlook by Afreximbank Research. The slowdown is attributed to reduced momentum in fiscal consolidation efforts, high interest rates, and subdued activity in the mining sector.
Despite the moderation in GDP growth, recent macroeconomic indicators point to gradual stabilization across key sectors. Inflation, which spiked in previous years, is forecasted to ease to 15.5% in 2025 and decline further to 9% in 2026. This improvement is expected to be driven by a combination of tighter monetary policy, a more stable exchange rate, and lower food prices. Ghana’s inflation rate currently stands at 13.7%, according to the latest CPI report by the Ghana statistical service
The report also highlights a positive trajectory in fiscal discipline. Ghana’s fiscal deficit is expected to narrow from current levels to 3.5% of GDP in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026. This is underpinned by ongoing fiscal consolidation initiatives and public financial management reforms, including enhanced fiscal responsibility frameworks and expenditure controls.
On the debt front, Ghana’s public debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to decline to 66.4% in 2025. This is a result of ongoing debt restructuring negotiations with commercial creditors and multilateral institutions, alongside improved tax compliance and efforts to curtail tax expenditure.
The country’s external position is also expected to improve modestly. The current account balance is projected to stand at a surplus of 2.6% of GDP in 2025, before easing to 1.4% in 2026. This performance will be supported by increased exports of oil and gold, Ghana’s two leading export commodities.
Meanwhile, the policy rate has remained elevated, reflecting the central bank’s commitment to curbing inflation and stabilizing the cedi. The local currency continues to face depreciation pressures, though the pace has slowed in recent months.
Ghana’s total foreign trade volumes, measured in US dollars, continue to show steady growth, indicating resilience in external trade flows despite global economic headwinds.
With reforms gaining ground and macroeconomic fundamentals showing signs of recovery, the outlook presents both opportunities and challenges. Sustaining momentum in fiscal reforms and ensuring stability ahead of will be crucial to contributing to efforts in restoring investor confidence and unlocking long-term growth potential.
