Sub-Saharan Africa’s rapid urban growth is yet to deliver the productivity gains and job creation needed to transform its economies, the World Bank has found, warning that poor planning and inadequate infrastructure could undermine the region’s economic potential.
The region’s urban population is projected to increase by 748 million people by 2050, reaching 1.7 billion, according to a new World Bank report, Sub-Saharan Africa’s Urban Awakening: Catalyzing Economic Growth and Job Creation.
The report says the growing urban population presents an opportunity to create more productive and better-paying jobs, particularly as about 15 million young people enter the region’s labour markets each year. However, it finds that productivity gains have remained limited, incomes have grown slowly and many jobs are still informal and low-paid.
Average GDP per capita in the region has also remained around $4,400, measured in constant 2021 international dollars adjusted for purchasing power parity.
The World Bank argues that urbanisation has not generated the same economic transformation seen in other regions, where the growth of cities has been accompanied by higher productivity and the creation of more jobs.
It identifies inadequate infrastructure, weak transport networks and regulatory barriers as major constraints, but says the challenges differ across established cities, their expanding outskirts and smaller towns.
Sub-Saharan Africa’s cities were home to 503 million people in 2025 and are expected to accommodate another 320 million by 2050. Despite offering higher household expenditure than rural areas, the report says the cities continue to underperform compared with cities in other developing regions.
A major constraint is the limited availability of accessible areas where businesses and workers can locate close to one another. Poor transport connections, insufficient infrastructure and regulations that restrict access to land and property development make it difficult for firms to benefit from the concentration of economic activity.
The report recommends targeted investment in transport infrastructure, mass public transit and affordable housing near employment centres. It also calls for reforms to land-use and building regulations to make it easier to develop locations with strong potential for economic activity.
The pressure is also extending to the outskirts of major cities, where rapid population growth is often taking place without adequate roads and basic services.
The physical area occupied by the region’s cities is projected to expand by 90 per cent between 2025 and 2050. Their peripheries are expected to absorb an additional 224 million people over the same period.
Without early planning, the report says, fragmented development could become entrenched, making it more difficult and expensive to provide infrastructure and connect residents to jobs.
It therefore urges governments to prepare for expansion by reserving land for roads and essential services and investing in arterial road networks before development makes such projects more difficult.
Smaller towns, meanwhile, could play a greater role in supporting economic growth if governments pay closer attention to their location and economic potential.
The region has 15,162 towns, with a combined population of 245 million in 2025. That figure is projected to rise to 404 million by 2050.
Although many of these towns retain rural characteristics and have weaker economic performance than larger cities, the report says some have the potential to become centres of jobs and enterprise, particularly those located along existing and emerging transport corridors.
It recommends prioritising infrastructure investment in towns with strong economic and geographic advantages, while improving education, healthcare and connectivity in less promising locations so residents can access opportunities in larger labour markets.
The report also identifies weak local government financing as a constraint on the region’s ability to manage urban expansion.
It calls for wider property tax coverage and the use of technology, including digital property mapping and billing systems, to improve revenue collection. Governments are also encouraged to strengthen land-based financing and make transfers from central government to local authorities more predictable and transparent.
With public resources limited, the World Bank says governments must direct investment towards areas where it can generate the greatest impact on jobs and attract private capital. Public-private partnerships and other forms of private investment could help meet the infrastructure needs that governments cannot finance alone.
The report notes that nearly half of the urban space Sub-Saharan Africa will need by 2050 has yet to be built. This gives governments an opportunity to influence how cities and towns expand, rather than allowing poorly planned development to create problems that will be costly to address later.
It argues that the region’s urban growth can become a stronger source of economic transformation, but this will depend on how effectively governments plan expansion, connect people to employment opportunities and direct investment towards areas with the greatest potential.
