Ghana is set to benefit from sustained high gold prices over the medium term, with reserves projected to nearly double by the end of 2025, according to Fitch Solutions.
In its July Sub-Saharan Africa Monthly Outlook, the UK-based research firm said continued gains in bullion, which accounts for about 40% of Ghana’s total exports, will significantly boost the country’s foreign exchange position and may influence fiscal and policy decisions in Accra.
“We think that high gold prices will have a broad range of political implications in Sub-Saharan Africa, given that most countries in the region export at least some gold,” Fitch noted.
The firm estimates Ghana’s current account surplus will rise from 4.2% of GDP in 2024 to 5.8% in 2025, driven largely by stronger export receipts. Foreign reserves are expected to jump from $6.4 billion this year to $11.6 billion by end-2025, providing import cover of 4.8 months.
Fitch said the global surge in gold prices is being fuelled by geopolitical instability, shifts in U.S. trade policy under a potential Trump administration, ongoing economic uncertainty, and rising gold purchases by central banks.
The improved external position is likely to strengthen the cedi and provide the government with more room to advance economic recovery measures.
Ghana, which is navigating a post-crisis economic programme backed by the IMF, could see greater fiscal flexibility as gold receipts rise, though analysts caution that any aggressive policy shifts may carry their own risks amid a volatile global backdrop.
