Today, Thursday, November 13, Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson will be the man at the center of all attention as he is expected to appear before the people’s assembly, parliament, to deliver the 2026 Budget Statement and Economic Policy of the President Mahama-led government.
After barely a year of painful fixes and an improving economic scorecard, the Budget is very crucial. The question on the lips of many is, will the consolidation continue to enhance the stability, or use the window to pursue transformational growth that creates jobs, modernises markets, and eases daily life for ordinary Ghanaians?
Ahead of such a crucial budget reading, everyone, from business associations, students, trade unions, organized labour, to investors, has some level of expectations.
What business groups want, what the IMF process looks like, whether stalled projects will resume, what happens to VAT and the COVID-19 levy, and the big policy choice between safety-first and bold investment are some of the questions on the lips of many stakeholders.
Will all these many expectations be met? Only time will tell.
The Desire of Business Groups
Put yourself in the shoes of the finance minister, and you will realize he might have had a very tough time preparing this budget. Business is not a single voice. Manufacturers, traders, and the food & beverage sector want different things, although the themes overlap. From lower operating costs, clearer tax rules, easier access to credit, and measures that help local producers compete.
For instance, the Food & Beverage Association of Ghana (FABAG) has publicly listed seven priority asks: reduce “nuisance” and distortionary taxes, protect and incentivise local producers, and support SME finance and raw-material sourcing so local factories can scale. They want tax reliefs and a practical route to import substitution.
GUTA, one of the largest business associations, is also watching from the corner with big expectations. They are also watching for policies that protect cross-border traders and reduce the cost and time of doing business, simpler VAT rules, predictable border procedures, and support for small traders.
And AGI is also looking ahead for initiatives that protect local manufacturing with targeted tariffs, procurement priorities, and incentives to revive domestic production capacity, especially in inputs used by miners and exporters.
To put it simply, businesses want lower nuisance taxes, predictable VAT rules that don’t punish local firms, lower lending costs, and targeted public investment that kickstarts private-sector supply chains.
The Fate of the IMF Programme
Ghana remains inside a three-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF) with the IMF. The good news is that the IMF staff reached a staff-level agreement on the fifth review in October 2025, a milestone that would unlock about US$385 million.
Previous reviews and disbursements have supported Ghana’s recovery and helped restore reserves and market confidence.
On paper, the three-year programme is expected to end this year. That said, some economists and policy commentators are arguing that the authorities should consider an extension or careful sequencing of the programme to safeguard reforms and financing, especially while debt restructuring talks and implementation of structural reforms continue.
The Minister will need to reassure markets that Ghana will both meet Fund conditions and use the breathing room to invest productively.
The Fate of Critical Projects
One critical aspect of the budget contractors will be very keen on is the area of infrastructural projects. Although some projects inherited from the previous government were halted for review and audit, the finance minister has signalled some hope in this area.
Interestingly, the Takoradi Market Circle project is back in the spotlight. Dr. Forson inspected the abandoned Takoradi Market Circle redevelopment days before the Budget and gave a clear signal that the administration is committed to resuming the project early next year.
Businesses and traders around Takoradi will be looking for specific budget allocations or a concrete public-private timeline. As some analysts say budget that merely promises “will resume” will not satisfy traders who have watched the site sit idle for years; what’s needed is a clear financing plan, procurement timeline, and protections for displaced traders.
Stakeholders will also be watching out for the number of projects that will be resumed and the new ones that will be initiated, and their budgetary allocations.
The VAT Reform
VAT reform has been in the pipeline for months. The Ministry of Finance had earlier committed to prepare a new VAT Bill after nationwide consultations, with the aim of submitting it as part of the 2026 Budget package.
The mid-year policy review even signalled that the COVID-19 levy would be abolished under the reform process. Will the reforms be finally announced in the budget?
Will the VAT system move toward a single, unified rate and remove punitive flat rates? Stakeholders have been pushing for simplification, higher registration thresholds for small businesses, and reversal of decoupling that caused cascading VAT effects.
The COVID-19 Levy
One controversial levy, which has been the talking point for many, is the COVID-19 levy. Official policy documents and the mid-year review suggested removing the COVID-19 levy as part of VAT reform.
If the Finance Minister follows through, that will be a welcome relief to households and businesses who have complained about the layering of levies. But removal must be offset by credible alternative revenue measures so fiscal targets (and IMF conditions) are preserved.
The Big Dilemma: Stability vs. Growth
Perhaps the Budget’s most important aspect for economists is the direction the government will choose. Will the government choose a cautious stance and stay cautious to guard the reforms that restored macroeconomic stability, or spend boldly to build infrastructure, jobs, and transformation to drive growth?
Indeed, the numbers have improved, Ghana’s debt ratios and inflation have fallen in 2025, and rating agencies are upgrading the outlook. But public investment remains on the low. The government spent only GHS 17 billion on infrastructure in H1 2025 (around 1.4% of GDP).
That low capital intensity risks a “stable but stagnant” outcome unless decisive public investment is mobilised to catalyse private capital.
There are also talks about driving growth to create jobs for the teaming youth, which will require significant spending and borrowing. This move can also put the stability of the economy in jeopardy.
Another school of thought believes it is safer for the government to choose a middle ground. protect gains while announcing targeted, catalytic spending for manufacturing clusters, market infrastructure, energy transition, and digital adoption.
The Bottomline
Today’s Budget presentation will be more than numbers and speech. It is a critical economic roadmap. The Finance Minister’s choices will mean a lot for every Ghanaian, businesses, the IMF, and investors.
Stay tuned as The High Street Journal will bring all you need to know as far as the 2026 Budget Statement and Economic Policy is concerned.
