As the country anticipates the presentation of the 2026 Budget, economist Dennia Nsafoah is urging the government not to be blinded by Ghana’s current economic boom, which is mainly fuelled by the gold sector.
Dennis Nsafoah, Assistant Professor of Economics at Niagara University and a member of Tesah Capital’s Research Committee, says the country’s growing dependence on gold exports could become a ticking time bomb if policymakers fail to act now, starting from the 2026 Budget.
Ghana’s Gold Boom – A Blessing and a Risk
The assistant professor of Economics maintains that there is no doubt that Gold has become the heartbeat of Ghana’s economy.
He recounts that in 2025 alone, it accounted for about 62% of total export earnings, raking in USD 11.2 billion out of USD 17.99 billion. The Bank of Ghana’s Domestic Gold Purchase Program has also strengthened the country’s financial position, with 36 tonnes of gold worth over USD 3.17 billion in reserves as of August 2025.
This, Nsafoah admits, has been a lifeline of the economy, stabilizing the cedi, boosting reserves, and helping Ghana rebuild investor confidence after years of economic turbulence.
“Gold has been a blessing, anchoring the cedi, improving reserves, and supporting growth,” he admitted.
The Looming Danger – Lessons from History
But beneath the positive impact of the gold boom, the economist says, lies a quiet threat. The economist draws a sobering parallel from history. In 2011, when global gold prices hit record highs, they tumbled by nearly half within just four years.
Today, with gold trading above USD 4,000 per ounce, he warns the pattern could easily repeat itself if global interest rates fall or geopolitical tensions ease.
Given the history, the Niagara University Professor of Economics maintains that Ghana’s economy is dangerously exposed. He fears that if prices crash again, the effects will ripple through our reserves, revenue, and exchange rate.
“There’s also a looming risk that few are talking about: gold dependence. It’s also a potential trap. The last time gold prices peaked in 2011, they crashed by nearly half within four years. With gold now trading above USD 4,000 per ounce, history could repeat itself if global interest rates remain high or geopolitical tensions ease,” he cautioned.
Time to Get Ahead of the Curve
The economist believes the 2026 Budget presents a golden opportunity to diversify the economy while conditions are still favorable. He insists that this is the time to get ahead of the gold curve, stressing the need for targeted investments in agriculture, manufacturing, and digital innovation.
He argues that expanding value chains in cocoa, cashew, and agro-processing could cushion Ghana from future commodity shocks. Likewise, reviving domestic manufacturing and nurturing digital start-ups would reduce the economy’s dependence on raw exports.
The Bottomline
Despite his warning, the economist remains optimistic. He says Ghana has already done the hard work by restoring fiscal discipline, stabilizing the cedi, and regaining investor confidence.
What remains is to transform this stability into inclusive and sustainable growth.
