Ghana’s inflation outlook is showing signs of stability in recent years, and if current conditions hold, the country could keep inflation within its target band through the rest of 2025 and the whole of 2026.
However, this fairly firmly anchored inflation is not immune to shocks, as there are inherent risks, both domestic and international, which can throw the stable price outlook off balance.
This is the reading of Economist, Courage Boti, the Manager of Macroeconomic Research at GCB Bank.
Courage Boti, in an interview monitored by The High Street Journal, explained that the combination of easing price pressures, firmer policy direction, and improved budget discipline is helping anchor inflation more firmly than before.
According to him, both the cost-side and demand-side factors, the two major forces that push prices up, are now moving in a direction that supports disinflation.
He points to the Bank of Ghana’s “proactiveness” in managing liquidity in the market, a process known as sterilization, and its conscious effort to ease interest rates gradually while keeping a close eye on inflation risks.
On the ground, he says, signs of food surpluses in markets and relatively stable demand conditions are helping to cool price pressures, even as the country prepares for new utility tariff adjustments and changes in the VAT system.
“I think everything is set, at least on the macro side, for inflation to remain within the target band for at least 2026. If you see the fiscal position, wherever that discipline is coming from, whether it’s from cost control exactly, or from whatever, yes, we’ve seen that the fiscal discipline trickling into that, and to the extent that the budget position going into 2026 also typifies similar discipline going forward,” he explained.
He added, “To the extent we can keep it, I think we have a call for inflation to remain within the target band.”
However, he was quick to warn that the calm is not guaranteed. Ghana remains exposed to external shocks such as fuel price jumps on the world market and sudden exchange rate swings. Any sharp movement in these areas could quickly filter into the prices of goods and services locally.
The economist pointed out, “the typical shocks you see will be from petroleum thriving on the global market, will be from potential exchange rate shocks, and of course, how these things pass through to general prices on the market.”
He also noted that global conditions are currently favourable, with many economies easing their policies cautiously. This has reduced the immediate threat of global inflationary spillovers. Oil prices, too, are not expected to rise sharply due to supply constraints and cautious production levels.
Courage Boti believes that the risk to inflation is fairly balanced, and it should support the disinflation process, if at least around stability for the next 2026.
This prediction means a lot for consumers and businesses. Ghana’s inflation path is on the right track, but the country must stay alert to ensure that the cooling prices are not thrown off balance to affect the pockets of consumers and projections and planning of businesses.
